Part 9/14:
The conversation emphasizes that modeling plays a crucial role in predicting peaks. Moving average models, especially those tracking Bitcoin’s entire price history, serve as upper bounds where prices tend to revert. The “mean reversion” tendency suggests prices overshoot before settling back, but the longer the market remains overheated, the more explosive the potential correction.
One model predicts a possible top near $300,000, but the analysts acknowledge the difficulty in predicting exact heights due to market volatility. Traders like Plan B and other “on-chain metrics” models often overshoot targets—sometimes hitting $400,000 or $500,000—before correction ensues.