Part 5/14:
Despite early calls for a pause in AI development—such as a notable 2023 open letter signed by over 30,000 individuals—the push for rapid progress continued unabated. Companies and governments failed to halt or slow their pursuits, motivated by the escalating value and potential dominance wielded by subsequent iterations of AI. The consensus is that AI capabilities are improving at an accelerating pace, from years to months, and now potentially weeks.
Forecasts suggest that within the next few years, it will be possible to observe tangible advances in AI competence on very short timescales. Experts like Elon Musk, Dario Ammed, and Sam Altman estimate that true AGI could emerge within 1 to 5 years, with most skeptical voices acknowledging a 5 to 10-year window.