Part 6/8:
The most affected region appears to be North America, facing sharp declines, while Asia and Europe are anticipated to hold onto modest gains but remain well below pre-pandemic levels. These projections paint a picture of a slowing trade environment, exacerbated by increasing tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and rising costs.
The Wild Card: US Tariffs and Global Trade Decline
Perhaps the most significant risk remains the potential resumption of higher US reciprocal tariffs after a recent 90-day pause. The WTO warns that such a move could shrink global trade by an additional 1.5%, creating ripple effects through manufacturing and consumer markets.