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When comparing Wish’s projected opening to past Disney animated hits, it falls into the realm of modest or below-average performers. For example, Chicken Little (2005) opened to roughly $18 million, while Tarzan (1999) had a more solid initial performance. Encanto and The Good Dinosaur achieved popularity but still did not come close to recouping large investments swiftly.
Adding to the concern is Disney’s declining trustworthiness among families. Recent films like Elemental faced sluggish starts partly because audiences perceive Disney as less aligned with family-friendly content than before. Moreover, the trailer for Wish was reportedly "ratioed," meaning it received more negative reactions than positive, further dampening enthusiasm.