Part 3/16:
Expected Value (EV) Analysis: The Cornerstone of Strategy
A significant portion of the discussion revolved around EV methodology—an approach that combines probabilities and outcomes to assess investment potential. For Bitcoin, he estimates a 1% chance of total wipeout, a 50% chance of reaching ~$500,000, and nearly a 50% chance of hitting ~$1 million by 2030. This yields an expected value of around $794,000 per Bitcoin, representing over 1,000% gains within six years—a compelling case for long-term holdings.