Part 10/13:
The Taiwan issue represents the most hazardous flashpoint. Chen notes that under the 1979 U.S.-China rapprochement, the U.S. agreed to sever official ties with Taiwan, maintaining only unofficial relations while promising to withdraw military support—albeit these commitments have been tested under the Trump administration, which took increasingly assertive actions toward Taiwan.
Chen warns that any unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan could significantly escalate tensions, with an 8.5 out of 10 on the conflict scale. U.S. military movements—such as reconnaissance flights and arms sales—raise the risks of conflict. He stresses that China views reunification, by peaceful means if possible, as a core national goal and urges Taiwan to avoid provocative moves that could lead to war.