Part 9/12:
One of Iran’s hopes was to manipulate oil prices by closing the Strait of Hormuz or disrupting exports. Yet, Iran is heavily dependent on oil revenues—about 90% of its income. Closing the Strait would backfire, cutting off vital cash flow. The US and its allies have the capacity to reopen the Strait swiftly, and global surplus oil supplies mitigate price shocks in the short term.
Indeed, recent oil price fluctuations—from $180 to around $90 per barrel—highlight the volatility, but not a sustainable pressure point for the US or its allies to halt the conflict. Iran’s economic strategy relies on an unsustainable gamble: the risk of economic self-destruction outweighs any short-term gains.