Part 1/11:

The Yield Curve and the Impending Economic Turnaround: A Deep Dive into 2025's Financial Outlook

As we move into 2025, the most watched macroeconomic indicator—the yield curve—signals a pivotal moment for the global economy. Historically, the yield curve has been a remarkably accurate harbinger of recession, yet in recent times, its signals seem to have lost some of their immediacy or at least their straightforwardness. Over the past year, the yield curve experienced a steepening out of a long inversion, a move historically associated with upcoming economic downturns. However, the economy appears to be holding strong, raising questions about whether traditional indicators are less reliable or if we are at a unique turning point.