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     last month  

    Regarding altcoins —

    There still hasn't been a compelling reason to hold them

    ALTs will only rally against BTC if BTC reaches new highs first

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       last month  

      Instead of holding a basket of alts hoping for alt season, holding BTC is an option if the cycle top is believed to be not in. If BTC rallies to ATHs, a rotation into alts could then be evaluated

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         last month  

        If the BTC cycle top is already in, that approach would avoid the pain of buying alts

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           last month  

          BTC falling is unpleasant, but it would likely be among the first to recover to new highs in a future cycle, while many alts could continue declining

          The base case for ALT/BTC pairs is a drop of about 30% over the coming weeks

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             last month  

            If that occurs, a reassessment would follow

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