Well yesterday was a bad day. I watched Bitcoin dominance absolutely surge in minutes. It just shows how thin the liquidity is out there. This only confirms what I’ve been saying all cycle: Bitcoin is the better hold. It gives you exposure to the upside while minimizing your downside risk. Today, the collective altcoin market put in a new low against Bitcoin for this entire cycle. Every single ‘guru’ who was convinced it was ‘alt season’ was simply wrong. Don’t take it out on me; take it out on the data.
When it comes to Ethereum, I’m not surprised by the drop. It was a textbook 30% correction back to the bull market support band. People try to invent ‘Black Swan’ narratives, like tariffs, but the market doesn’t care about that B.S. Ethereum does this every post-halving year—it rallies, hits an all-time high, and then expects a 30% drop.
I did make one exception to my Bitcoin-only approach: Ethereum. I bought the dip today because I believe this drop was a necessary step. I think Ethereum has bottomed against Bitcoin and should now rally to a new all-time high over the next two or three months. I know it sounds absurd, but so did my 30% drop prediction, and look what happened.
I want to be clear about my risk management. While I’m optimistic for one final rally, I have to have an invalidation point. If Bitcoin gets two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, I’m out. That move has historically signaled the bear market is underway, and I won't ride a 70% drop down.
In the meantime, remember there is always a bull market somewhere. While altcoins were dropping 70%, commodities like gold, silver, and uranium were doing really well. You can make money if you're willing to step out of the shiny altcoin space. Let's see if this final push plays out. If Ethereum rallies, we'll look back at this moment as the crazy bottom before the cycle finale. If not, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong and we’ll see you next cycle.
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STOPOh, what an honor.
You did a great job @andyblack! Keep it up!