I wanted to share my perspective on Ethereum's current position, and honestly, I think a lot of the speculation out there is a bit dubious right now. It’s been stuck hovering in a trading range, generally around $4,500, for the last couple of months, just kind of chopping sideways. We’ve talked for a while about how after it found its low, it should eventually rally to all-time highs. But when everyone was screaming "alt season" a little while ago, I pointed out that a durable breakout on the first try was unlikely, and that’s exactly what we saw. It was a good time to skim a bit in preparation for a pullback.
To be frank, for Ethereum to make a powerful, durable move and break through to new highs, it needs time. Specifically, it needs the bull market support band—that’s the 20-week simple moving average and 21-week exponential moving average—to catch up with the current price. I believe we'll see this continued sideways trading for a while longer, probably for the next couple of months, until that support band gets high enough to force a decisive move. It's currently stuck between the long-term resistance above and buyers eager to buy any dips below.
Don't assume that if Bitcoin breaks out, Ethereum must immediately follow. We've seen this play out before, and a lagged effect is quite possible. Back in 2017, for example, Bitcoin shot up to new highs quickly in October, but Ethereum just lagged behind, chopping sideways until mid-November when its support band finally caught up and powered its run to the market cycle top. I think we could be in that exact scenario again.
People also need to pay attention to Bitcoin dominance. If people get distracted and pile into altcoins while Bitcoin is building up for a move, Bitcoin usually pulls back, dominance rises, and it essentially punishes that "malinvestment" before sucking the liquidity back and making its final breakout. This isn't a "maxi" view; it's just how the market tends to work. Ultimately, my view is the same: expect chop, wait for the bull market support band to arrive, and then we’ll get the breakout to the all-time high before eventually rolling into the 2026 bear market. That’s how I see it playing out.