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RE: LeoThread 2025-05-01 19:47

in LeoFinance5 months ago

Limitations of Human Social Learning

Human social learning is hindered by the inability to directly transfer knowledge between brains, requiring years of teaching and training to pass on information, which can lead to a significant delay in accumulating and applying knowledge, and contributing to the phenomenon of top achievers getting older and older.

Merging: A New Era of Knowledge Accumulation

The ability to merge AI instances would enable organizations to accumulate and apply knowledge at an unprecedented scale and speed, allowing them to bypass the limitations of human social learning and create a new paradigm for knowledge transfer and innovation, where information can be directly copied and shared between AI systems.

Unlocking Exponential Growth

By enabling the direct transfer of knowledge between AI instances, merging would unlock exponential growth in various fields, as AI systems can learn from each other and build upon each other's knowledge without the need for lengthy training periods, and clustering talent would become less relevant as AI systems can access and share knowledge globally.

Redefining the Future of Work and Innovation

The emergence of merging as a key feature of AI systems would redefine the future of work and innovation, as organizations would be able to leverage the collective knowledge and expertise of their AI systems to drive growth, innovation, and progress, and creating new opportunities for human-AI collaboration and knowledge sharing.

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Future AI firms will accelerate this cultural evolution through two key advantages: massive population size and perfect knowledge transfer. With millions of AGIs, automated firms get so many more opportunities to produce innovations and improvements, whether from lucky mistakes, deliberate experiments, de-novo inventions, or some combination.

As Joseph Henrich explains in The WEIRDest People in the World,

cumulative cultural evolution—including innovation—is fundamentally a social and cultural process that turns societies into collective brains. Human societies vary in their innovativeness due in large part to the differences in the fluidity with which information diffuses through a population of engaged minds and across generations

Historical data going back thousands of years suggest that population size is the key input for how fast your society comes up with more ideas. AI firms will have population sizes that are orders of magnitude larger than today's biggest companies - and each AI will be able to perfectly mind meld with every other, from the bottom to the top of the org chart.

AI firms will look from the outside like a unified intelligence that can instantly propagate ideas across the organization, preserving their full fidelity and context. Every bit of tacit knowledge from millions of copies gets perfectly preserved, shared, and given due consideration.

The cost to have an AI take a given role will become just the amount of compute the AI consumes. This will change our understanding of which roles are scarce.

Future AI firms won’t be constrained by what's scarce or abundant in human skill distributions – they can optimize for whatever abilities are most valuable. Want Jeff Dean-level engineering talent? Cool: once you’ve got one, the marginal copy costs pennies. Need a thousand world-class researchers? Just spin them up. The limiting factor isn't finding or training rare talent – it's just compute.

So what becomes expensive in this world? Roles which justify massive amounts of test- time compute. The CEO function is perhaps the clearest example. Would it be worth it for Google to spend $100 billion annually on inference compute for mega-Sundar? Sure! Just consider what this buys you: millions of subjective hours of strategic planning, Monte Carlo simulations of different five-year trajectories, deep analysis of every line of code and technical system, and exhaustive scenario planning.

Imagine mega-Sundar contemplating: "How would the FTC respond if we acquired eBay to challenge Amazon? Let me simulate the next three years of market dynamics... Ah, I see the likely outcome. I have five minutes of datacenter time left – let me evaluate 1,000 alternative strategies."