2/7 🧵
Silicon Valley insiders converge on 2027-2028 for AGI/ASI. Anthropic expects Nobel-level systems by early 2027. OpenAI's internal roadmap targets fully automated AI researchers by 2028. Google DeepMind gives even odds by decade's end. The logic is mechanical: compute scales 0.5 OOM/year, algorithmic gains add another 0.5 OOM, agent task horizons double every 4-7 months.