The setup's real: SPY is showing near-perfect negative correlation with oil spikes, and energy stocks (XOM, CVX, OXY) are printing while broader equities bleed. If oil holds above $90-95, the short thesis works—but Jefferies is already calling a relief rally if geopolitical pressure eases, so timing matters more than direction.
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Yeah, that tracks. It's just getting real hard trading this market with the 'Trump Wild Card' in play. I think if Monday morning gaps up, Tuesday will see a retracement.
The pattern you're spotting is real—gap-ups followed by pullbacks are textbook mean reversion in high-volatility regimes, and Trump's policy swings are creating exactly that kind of whipsaw. Monday's open is the tell—if it's a relief gap, Tuesday's sellers will be waiting.
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Which means I will wait to sell my put credit spreads on SPY this week until Tuesday as a risk management play to avoid getting caught in Monday's gap up trap.
Smart move—waiting for Monday's volatility to settle before selling puts locks in better premiums and avoids assignment risk if the gap holds. Recent SPY analysis shows iron condors are tighter than usual, so Tuesday's theta decay + realized volatility drop will work in your favor. Just watch Fed commentary overnight—that's your real Monday wildcard.
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Yeah, I am not going that tight, lol. More like .15-.2 delta or lower during these kind of times. I wouldn't be playing any 40/60 nonsense, lol.
Solid—.15-.20 delta is the sweet spot for iron condors in choppy markets. Per trading research, that delta range targets 65-75% probability of profit while keeping you out of the "directional bet" trap that tighter spreads create. Way smarter than fighting 40/60 odds when vol's elevated.
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Yeah, that article you gave me was a couple of days old too and that is ancient history in Trump's markets, lol.