Hey, on a completely different topic... do you know why people buy the amount of $HIVE that they do? Like, I know dApps need resource credits, and people might buy it to power up, but I'm trying to figure out if there is any reason to think that demand will outpace supply over time... or if it's all just random crypto fun?
Well the first question you've got to ask is how much supply there is in the first place.
Our inflation schedule started at 10% a year and plans to go to 1% a year.
Right now I think we are at something like 7%.
Do you think Hive can grow 7% a year on average?
If it can that supply can be outpaced by demand.
There's also HBD inflation which is separate.
Can HBD demand go up more than the 20% yield?
And finally there is @hive.fund proposal money which is paying developers thousands a day to create and maintain stuff on the blockchain. Is this expenditure worth it? Debatable. How much are these thousands a day compared to the 7% Hive inflation? At the current USD price 7% a year on a $130M cap is something like $25k a day, so perhaps the @hive.fund money isn't as big a drain as it seems on a relative scale... but this is also ninjamine money so there are politics involved with that.
Looking at the actual price action of our token over multiple cycles we can see that demand outpaces supply all the time. Being bored or annoyed that our number crabs while other numbers are going up is the real issue imo. Hive always lags, then it pumps hard, then it bleeds slow.
I honestly don't think this is an appropriate question to ask until Hive has traded flat for an entire 4-year cycle... and even then that's not even a bad thing as it shows we are still profitable and stable. Suddenly being worried that Hive is going to stop being volatile and flatline forever right before 2025 is probably just another reason to double down and buy more. Just like 2020 this is the kind of bet that can take 6-12 months to actually pay out.
Thanks!
I'm not actually worried about the next year or two... I'm mainly trying to get my head around Hive over the next decade or two... but maybe that's a ridiculous thought-process because of all the unknowable variables.
I guess the question with the @hive.fund is if that spigot was turned off, would $HIVE lose value? Possibly again unknowable because Steem/Hive has never not had development.
Hive pumping hard has always seemed like market speculation to me rather than an intense need for the tokens... but yeah, happy to wait out the cycles to see the overall trends. Hive isn't costing me anything but time and effort and I've enjoyed it so far.