Your assessment doesn’t account for one thing: A black swan event pertaining to a nameless central bank who might be in trouble. Now the question is would this be bullish for Bitcoin?? Let’s just say I wouldn’t sell my insurance. But for each his own. :)
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Black Swans are such Wildcards.
Anything could happen, but it's hard to bet on a Black Swan.
Gambling is all about playing the odds.
Just because you lost doesn't mean you made the wrong play.