process is about building confidence as you move through the sequence. You say, well, if rosin, rubber, tallow, wool tops, all those are going down and copper is going down. Well, it's probably not speculators. It's probably part of this broader sequence where all of these industrial commodities are moving lower. Notice how I didn't say oil though. Oil tends to be a little bit more service sector based. It definitely contributes largely to manufacturing processes, but it's also like airlines, driving, that's more service sector. So when we study this sequence, the fact that oil is still elevated while these industrial commodities are plunging is actually very historically consistent. Oil tends to fall once the recession arrives because the service sector really only starts to contract in a recession. Service sector almost is very non-cyclical. So the fact that we have industrial commodities going down, but oil prices staying elevated, yes, there's a supply component, there's a (40/57)
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