particular the way clouds interact with aerosols, the particles that we're putting up in the atmosphere, are the biggest uncertainty in the models. How much uncertainty are we talking about here? Well, one common measure of the models is how much will the temperature go up if we doubled carbon dioxide? And the previous estimates ranged anywhere from one and a half degrees to four and a half degrees. And the most recent generation of models, which will inform the next UN assessment report to be issued in July, are even more uncertain than that. Some of them say the temperature would go up as much as six degrees and others say the temperature would go only up by one and a half degrees if we were to double carbon dioxide from the pre-industrial. So on the face of it, that doesn't make sense, right? I mean, most people are going to hear that and they're going to say, how can more advanced models give us a wider range of outcomes? Right. Well, we are trying to understand the response of the (34/57)
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