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RE: LeoThread 2025-08-22 08:58

in LeoFinance2 months ago

linear extrapolations of what happens or what's happening now is going to continue happening in the months ahead. That's why whenever growth is strong, people always confuse a cyclical trend for a new secular trend. Like when Trump was in office, growth accelerated from 0% in 2016 to almost 3% in 2018. Everyone said, this is it. We're going to hit a scape velocity. We're going to hit a 5%. Yeah, we're going to hit a 5%. We're going to hit a scape velocity. But as soon as growth was hitting 3%, you saw the leading indicators start to crest and start to move lower, which gave you strong confirmation that, no, this is not a secular change. This is just a cyclical trend. So the leading indicators, I separate them into two buckets, what we would call longer leading economic indicators and shorter leading economic indicators. And I do that for two reasons. One is because when you study leading indicators, some happen to have longer leads and some happen to have shorter leads. So it's good to (23/57)