You are viewing a single comment's thread from:

RE: LeoThread 2025-08-22 08:58

in LeoFinance2 months ago

screaming at the Fed to cut. The two-year node was telling the Fed, you should be cutting today. But if you're taking a look at, say, Fed funds, I mean, let's Fed funds to 10-year. Let's take a look at three months to 10-year. Most of the curve, at least after the 10-year part of the curve, is inverted. A lot of people I know like to look at the Fed funds two years, three months, two years as a sign of economic stress. Everybody's got their own favorite part of the curve. I look at Fed funds to 10 years, and it's got a great track record. That's telling you that if the recession isn't already here, it's coming in the second half of the year. Now we're standing some of the better tone to the recent economic data. To me, a lot of that is just noise, especially on the production side, which is clearly in a downtrend. They also changed, didn't Pal change some of the language recently? I think he changed the zero lower bound to effective lower bound. I saw some other language changes as (42/57)