we're seeing. Growth is trending at about 1% right now. So we're very, very close to that zero bound. Any further deceleration is going to knock us below zero and that will officially be a recession in the NBER's eyes. But recession or no recession is less significant than the direction. Where's the momentum heading? And the momentum is lower and we're about 1% right now. So then we go to our leading indicators. And let's start with the longer leading indicators. The longer leading indicators are generally your monetary aggregates, your credit aggregates, your changes in interest rates and the housing sector. Things that are very interest rates sensitive technically because the Fed, people may have heard the term, when the Fed engages in tightening or easing monetary policy, it has long and variable lags. That sort of gives you your first clue there that those long and variable lags are longer leading indicators. So when we look at the monetary and credit aggregates right now, they're (28/57)
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