Despite the poor price performance of crypto assets throughout the first three quarters of 2025, there are still reasons to be optimistic for the remainder of Q4:
Powell signaled that the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) could come as early as tomorrow, after the Fed's meeting. This would increase liquidity in the banking system, and likely boost prices.
There is a greater than 99% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, but it's always possible that Powell could surprise us and drop them by 50 basis points, increasing the money supply.
More than $9 trillion of US national debt was slated to be rolled over this year at much higher rates. The 25bps cuts likely aren't enough to keep interest payments on national debt manageable, and more cuts will probably be required soon.
A variety of assets are already signalling that the money supply has been surging:
Gold has dipped below $3900 after surpassing $4300 about a week ago, finding support near $4000.
Bitcoin remains volatile despite the overall bullish trend this year, dropping from $115k to $112k today.
Privacy coins like Zcash, Zano, and PIVX are showing signs of life, waking up after their own extended bear markets.
- The first Solana ETF was just approved, and other currencies such as Litecoin are also expected to get their own soon. It could be argued that BTC and ETH have done well this year thanks to the approval of their ETFs almost two years ago.
Until next time...
Despite a lackluster first three quarters of 2025, there is still hope that Q4 could pleasantly surprise us - but only time will tell.
If you found this article interesting, be sure to check out my other posts on crypto and finance here on the Hive blockchain. You can also follow me on InLeo for more frequent updates.
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That point about the debt getting rolled at higher rates hits home, the math do not balance for long without more cuts. From a numbers view, even 25 bps feels like a bandaid on a firehose, so extra liquidity coming in would explain why gold and BTC stay so jumpy :) I stay cautious and size positions slowly as an accountant brain does, but this setup makes me realy optimistic into Q4. If the Fed blinks, risk assets sniff it fast, even the sleepy privacy coins could catch a breath'
At this point, it seems confirmed that they will try to print their way out of the unsustainable debt bubble, so that means more inflation, quite likely hyperinflation at some point.
Good luck with your accounting and positioning 👍
Hyperinflation is a tail risk to me, but in the maCrO math velocity has to rip and and policy has to fully lose anchor first.
I dont see hyper as base case, I lean to sticky inflation with rolling squeezes, so I size for cash buffers, bills, some BTC and gold, then rotate if the Fed blinks :)
Totally get your view though, if CPI pops and credit cracks then your hyper path bites fast, you hedging with real assets or max risk off for now, ADmin rules aside?