Everyone likes to Buy Low and Sell High but it’s usually far easier said than done. For people in the Crypto space and in particular, the HIVE and Splinterlands space everyone has an opinion. If you're reading my blog then I'm hoping you're interested to hear mine so, personally, when I am looking to see what is “cheap” I have a bit of a process. I like to do some comparisons of recent price history and have some ideas about WHY something might be cheap. If I can tick a few boxes and have a bit of spare change in the wallet then I’m a buyer.
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HIVE has been on a great run lately and I had squirrelled away some gains in my HBD Savings Account to buy on the next dip and here we are. HIVE has been very good to me in 2021 for a number of different reasons and I would like to reinvest in the ecosystem here. Mainly because I think it’s going places and there is still a lot of upside compared to downside but for full disclosure I do have a pro-HIVE bias. I won’t ramble on about HIVE though because that’s not really what this post is about and I am pretty happy with my HIVE stake already. This post is about why I am now using some of my recent gains to accumulate SPS and some specific Splinterlands card issues.
SPS is intended to be the Governance Token for the Splinterlands game and ecosystem. It is still early days but I do see Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) having a big future in Crypto more broadly. I see the SPS token a bit like a Voting or Preference Share of a traditional company but for the Splinterlands DAO as it takes shape over time. Apart from the early hype where it looked inflated I think many people don’t really value SPS because it’s been distributed initially by free airdrop and now that the early hype has worn off it does look pretty cheap to me so long as the Splinterlands Devs continue to evolve the game and the DAO. I have every reason to believe they will since they’ve built a decent track record in recent years and they’ve earned some trust. We are currently on Day 192 of a 365 day airdrop so there is a bit more SPS to come but we are now over half-way. I’d expect that once the airdrop is nearly finished people will realise the window of opportunity is closing and the SPS price will start to rally again. I’m guessing but I reckon in about 3-4 months time this might happen. So yeh, at 11 cents US it looks cheap to me. It’s also down 90% from it’s highest point...I’ll have some of that thanks!
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Most of the NFTs representing playing cards of the Splinterlands game have taken a hit over the last month or so. I posted a little while back my Analysis of the Splinterlands Bear Market so I won’t rehash the over-supply that I think has caused part of the reason why these cards appear cheap, but we’ve also had a bit of a bumpy ride in the broader Crypto markets and NFTs in general which were looking a bit frothy in that back half of 2021. I wrote that analysis 15 days ago and looking at the Chaos Legion pack sales now there have been over 580K packs sold since that post, so at that rate the Chaos Legion will sell out in 6-7 months. I am expecting that sales will accelerate as we get closer to selling out so I also think Chaos Legion cards are quite likely to rally in that same 3-4 month timeframe. I believe that as the hype has been wearing off a lot of players are dumping excess Chaos Legion cards onto the market and so they currently look cheap to me – especially if you compare some of those cards to older Beta or Untamed cards with similar stats. Similarly I think the current Reward cards are also cheap because – like the SPS airdrop - people tend to not value things they get for free, so they’re being dumped too. With Reward cards there is some history of them appreciating in value once they go out of print so they are on my shopping list too!
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Whether you are a player or an investor there are some pretty good reasons to be buying at these levels. Of course you should do your own research as there are certainly no guaranteed profits. There is significant risk of making losses in this space, but I am practicing what I am preaching so if you want to know what I’m doing and why then here is my reasoning!
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The pre-sold SPS will be fully released to those that bought it cheap (around a cent I think) in April. Those people are mostly dumping (currently for around 10X gains) when it gets released to them. I would expect less sell pressure after April. Now is the time to accumulate.
I didn't know this. Great tip, thanks!
I like the neutral reward cards the best, even if you have a weak splinter they take up the slack every time.
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I've been having a lot of Hive paralysis lately. I just don't make any moves. If I do it's wrong.
I was lucky enough to buy some starter packs at the beginning of splinterlands that are alpha cards so I have a collection power of 15,000 but chaos has me spooked. I'm terrible at playing and terrible at trading. I wouldnt know what to buy and how to buy them. Ill have around 1800 sps at the end of the airdrop and 100,000 dec.
I'm so bad at play that Im stuck in bronze and won't really earn much dec anymore with the game changes. My thought is to just grind it out in Hive for my winnings but boy I don't want to miss out on splinterlands. Its a dilema but either way I think I'll win.
I recently discovered your posts and appreciate your process. I aim to learn as much as I can from them so don't worry about spreading your hive bias. If we are reading the post then we are already biased. Bring it on!
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I delegated you some Epics I think you didn't have. Hope they help, I don't have a ton of cards but epics are the key for most of my wins.
oh wow! That's really awesome! I'll figure out how to use them. I really want to get better and this forces me lol. I'm terrible but determined!
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Pretty nice of you..
If you want to get into the game I think the glut of cheap Chaos Legion cards on the market right now is a great opportunity to build a deck that can win games. Good luck!
It seems like the time to be buying cheap cards for sure. I have enough power to play where I want to. I can't see myself getting good enough go beyond silver iii. I really need to get my confidence up, find my favorite cards and get a lot of those. If not I need to find the best bang for my buck to invest. I don't want to overinvest. It's a fine line. I loved used my alpha summoner before chaos came around so Im thinking about getting the summoners I enjoy in bronze if they are a good deal.
Cheap rewards are such an easy choice. All those 1c and 2c vampires and goblin mechs.
Sea monsters too.
None of those cards are that cheap any more!
They were when I bought them :)
Make sense.
My fear is I am not able to ascertain if it is going to get cheaper.
My thoughts are how I can flip cards for profit but I a yet to experiment.