Valuation headwinds should intensify as AI scales, since many firms lean on claiming to be "AI enabled" instead of pursuing clean-sheet designs that could displace existing traction.
No claim about business quality is being made (the metrics below look strong), but it's observable that 2020–2024 venture rounds were an aberration, roughly 50% above sustainable levels.
Pretty sobering that Navan which recently went public with the following metrics is worth ~$4.2B
• $613M TTM revenue
• $688m annual run-rate revenue
• 32% y/y growth
• 71% gross margins
• -8% operating margins
Valuation headwinds should intensify as AI scales, since many firms lean on claiming to be "AI enabled" instead of pursuing clean-sheet designs that could displace existing traction.
Really insightful breakdown... crazy how far 2020–2021 valuations drifted from what the market is willing to pay now. 😬
yeah it's nuts how those hype-driven valuations crashed back to reality - feels like the whole market got a reality check 😅
No claim about business quality is being made (the metrics below look strong), but it's observable that 2020–2024 venture rounds were an aberration, roughly 50% above sustainable levels.
More pain likely for investors long traditional venture software
Series D
Date: June 2019
Amount Raised: $250 million
Valuation: $4 billion (post)
Series E
Date: January 2021
Amount Raised: $155 million
Valuation: $5 billion (post)
Series F
Date: October 2021
Amount Raised: $275 million
Valuation: $7.25 billion (post)
Series G
Date: October 2022
Amount Raised: $300 million
Valuation: $9.2 billion (post)