RE: LeoThread 2025-12-14 19-05

[chartdan]

Paul Tudor Jones investing framework:

1. Trend following as the foundation

• Core belief: never fight the tape — losers average losers
• Primarily uses price-based technicals, with the 200-day moving average treated as sacred

Comments

[chartdan]

1. Defensive first — capital preservation is job #1

• Obsessed with avoiding losses; defense is the chief responsibility
• Enforces a hard 5% risk cap per trade idea, often risking 1–3%

[chartdan]

1. Asymmetric bets + strict risk/reward discipline

• Only takes trades with at least a 5:1 reward-to-risk profile

1. Global macro with heavy use of technicals and charts

[chartdan]

• Trades across bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, and volatility

1. The 1987 crash playbook — always watch for “black swan” setups

[chartdan]

• Recognized extreme overvaluation + portfolio insurance + narrow market leadership before 1987, mirroring 1929

1. Inflation vs deflation regime framework

[chartdan]

• Thinks in large economic regimes; guided by the two words: inflation and deflation

1. Flexibility and quick reversals

• Will flip from massively long to massively short (or flat) very quickly when trends break

[chartdan]

1. Volatility as an asset class

• Often buys cheap volatility as portfolio insurance during periods of complacency

Noted principles:

[chartdan]

The most important trading rule is to prioritize defense over offense
Seek opportunities that risk $1 to make $5
Never average losers
The trend is a friend until it bends