Rebellion Pre-Sale
3 days into the pre-sale 52.7% of Packs have been sold with ~237k of them left which kind of can be seen as a success given the market conditions. While I think most who wanted to get in already did so, the fewer get sold the better the value of the promo cards should hold because those cards become more scarce which might bring in some extra buys near the end. I would estimate 350k packs in total to get sold after the pre-sale period is over.
Rebellion Pre-Sale Promo Cards
Instead of 1 Legendary Promo Card, there will be 2 Card with one of them being a rare. Usually these cards are overpowered as an incentive to buy packs and I don't think this time it will be different.
The Legendary Mantaroth looks like a strong really tank and a must in game rules where no magic is allowed. The fact that it has got Sield pretty much gives it double the health and armor with those game rules. The fact that it has True Strike also makes up for the low speed and makes it suitable for reverse speed rule sets. I'm not so sure the new 'armored strike' ability probably has limited effect since most of the armor will likely be reduced by the tile it gets to attack. The repair I assume triggers before it attacks which will for sure be helpful. Overall this tank won't be fun to play against most of the time since it's really hard to kill unless you play monsters with certain abilities like Poison and Affliction, or Shatter. With 100 packs needed on average for 1 card, there at max will be around 450 Max level copies in case the pre-sale sells out. This for most likely will be a big motivation to get into the pre-sale as this card easily could go for 30$-40$ right off the bat with the potential to go way up in case there is another adoption wave.
The Rare Grimbardun Smithh also looks quite powerful and is in a way similar to many of the no-attack cards like Lord Arianthus, Onyx Sentinel, & Almo Cambio which indirectly will devalue those cards. Since it has the immunity ability, it will very much be suitable to play with the Lily Shieldpaw Summoner. With 1 copy for every 10 packs and 115 copies needed for a max level card, there will be a maximum of ~430 cards.
So these cards will likely be the new 'pay2win' cards giving an added discount to those willing to commit in the pre-sale and possible frustration to players who don't own these cards and face them. Maybe an idea for a ruleset could be that promo cards are not allowed to be used.
Rebellion General Sale Prediction
I guess the regular Sale will go live the moment the new set is released and I do expect this to ge extremely slow since it makes no sense really to wait and miss out on the 2 pre-sale promo cards. Also for new players it makes much more sense to buy Chaos Legion Packs on the market to start off as those will just be way cheaper compared to buying packs.
Unless crypto gets in another crazy bull market during the coming year, I have a hard time for Rebellion to really see sell crazy numbers since it just makes no sense financially for most who just got burned on Chaos Legion.
Rebellion Card Values
Since cards and packs held count toward the airdrop, very likely the value of the cards early on will very much equal what players pay for on the secondary market based on opening them with Potions (Since everyone already has too many of those). As time passes by, they inevitably will see a decline in value each time a new airdrop card is released and things might really fall off a cliff after the last one is distributed. One thing is for sure, the coming year, it will be impossible for card prices to go above the price it costs to buy packs since many will come in at that point trying to flip for a profit.
Chaos Legion & Old Reward Card Prices
I do expect rewards to go up mostly because Rebellion Packs should become part of them and they are going to be worth at least x3 what Chaos Legion packs are worth. The cheapest way to farm these rewards will be to use older cards for both older and newer players. On top there should be some events where old cheap cards can be burned to enter which should reduce a lot of the supply of the cheapest cards. In that regard, I think buying Chaos Legion cards now purely financially and from an ROI point of view will be favorable.
Power Creep
It was said that legendary summoners will be somewhere between the ones from Untamed (which borke the game) and those of Chaos Legion (which were fun and balanced). I just don't think they can make it to introduce a lot of power creep because that would be totally kill all faith of those who already got crushed by Chaos Legion. Most likely the design of the cards are going to be copy-paste many of the Untamed cards with slight differences indirectly printing more cards that are already available. In the end, there is only this much that can be done and the new summoners that leave players with a coice will be the biggest difference.
Conclusion
Just looking at everything now, I'm actually not excited at all about Rebellion as it will make the problem of already having an oversupply potentially worse. Unless there is a crazy bull market it will also be hard to get more new players in the short term even though I still see the game along with SPS having a (bright) future. Just too many players got totally butchered and the game currently lacks real onboarding and fun game modes that are not pay2win so it's hard to see many new players coming in. 3-5 years is really the time frame you need to look at and Rebellion might be a set that holds value better compared to the others because there likely will be a lot less cards in circulation.Play2Earn Games I'm Playing...
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Thanks for the overview, those are some good points to think about. I am still excited about the Rebellion set though as it brings something new to the game and some new cards to collect. The gameplay changes are also something to look forward to.
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Good predictions, we will see how everything progresses. Good post