Beta & Untamed Pack Rewards
I was around during this era of the game and there never was any issue whatsoever that I recall regarding pack prices since there was no crazy oversupply while they also were half as expensive. If anything, this shows that the crazy oversupply of Chaos Legion packs combined with the doubling in price were the main problems with this set.
Chaos Legion Pack Devaluation
Chaos Legion was sold for 4$ a pack while right now on the Secondary Market they are worth just 0.7$ mostly because there has been an oversupply with incentives for players to buy more packs than they need along with the fact that the main way to get earnings from the game is to sell packs that are received for rewards. This along with the lack in overall demand makes them go at a big discount.
I don't think the fact that they are part of the rewards are the only factor and in the end cards prices generally dictate the price of packs as when expected cards received from packs is bigger compared to what the cards can be sold for, market makers will come in buying and opening the packs to dump on the market for a profit getting the prices of packs up and or prices of cards down so there is an equilibrium.
Rebellion Packs Difference & Expectaions
The main difference with Rebellion packs is that they will count toward the airdrop so there is no mechanic where you buy packs to sell them in order to get more packs and have more of the airdrop. Packs and cards held will count toward that so packs gotten from reward chests should also count for this.
Expected Free Marlet Price:
Right now packs are going for 2.92$ and from what I believe the 2 promo cards count toward purchases and not packs held. With DEC at 3.94$ for 4000 and vouchers at 0.14$ for 5 combined with the 15% discount for 2000 Packs, they can be purchased a pack can be purchased for 3.55$. this for 2000 Packs will include 230 Rare Promo cards + 9 Golden foil and 23 Legendary Promo cards + ~1 Golden Foil.
So at a 0.62$ premium for each pack, the promo cards combined need to be worth 1240$ to 'break-even'. However, it can be expected that prices of packs on the secondary market will pick up closer to what it costs at a -15% Discount without the promo cards as there will be no point to buy packs from Splinterlands when they are considerably cheaper compared to buying them in the store.
Rebellion Pack Sale Cycle
What I expect will happen is that everyone will be able to buy packs at a 10%-14% discount with only the whales who aim to flip for a small profit buying directly from Splinterlands. Likely players or bots that will earn packs from rewards will undercut this price a bit but there will only be that much available that it should not be a major factor.
Big Problem With No Pack Rewards
So these past years, DEC was removed from rewards and replaced by SPS (which tanked), Cards were made Soulbound which made it fun but totally removed them as earnings and they actually will become a cost to make tradable. Potions have been worth only a bit to those buying and opening packs while Merrits basically earn smaller amounts on DEC in the burn value of the of the Gladius cards. These leaves packs as the only real rewards left that have some kind of value and excitement.
For this reason, removing packs would be another massive blow to rewards with as a result the further exodus from the game as there is no point paying thousands of dollars to play this game without really getting anything back from it anymore aside from some fun playing it.
Company Earnings vs Player Rewards
In the end, everything comes down to how much of the earnings that the game makes comes back to the players and pack rewards are one of those ways for value to flow back to players.
Major Benefits of Rebellion Pack Rewards
If Rebellion packs are part of the rewards this would mean that rewards from packs instantly go x3 or so which will have a positive effect on card & asset prices since it gives an extra reason to get higher rankings and play the game. In the end everyone tries to get some kind of ROI as it makes no sense whatsoever just to see your assets get inflated to zero without any real rewards or possibilities to earn something big.Problem With Pack Rewards
The main issue most have is that packs are dumped on the market which lowers their value and the value of the assets as seen. Just for that reason, players who are buying into Rebellion want packs to be removed from rewards which in my view is a flawed argument as there are no real reasons to buy packs of there are no rewards.
The Bot Problem
With 90% of matches now played in Wild it means all the bots are there and their main objective is to grind rewards chests in order to get packs. I think one of the mistakes that was made was to scrap the entire collection power idea which helped to tank the card prices in favor of SPS. Bots simply can with a handful of cards now grind rewards while renting some delegated SPS.
Basically, the main issue still is that pure value by mass-botting extraction needs to be combated in one way or another or at least it has to be made fair.
The Reward Pack Dilemma
So it's either have Packs as part of the rewards with the result that selling pressure will be inevitable or have no packs in rewards which pretty much cuts all earnings from the game to the point where it makes no sense to buy packs in the first place.Solutions
I don't think the idea of just removing Rebellion Pack rewards from the game is a valid option and this honestly is the main reason I'm staying in Splinterlands. I liked the idea of Collection Power as it actually required players to have a collection. I would not mind if it was brought back in one way or another counting as unique collection power so you can't just get all the cheapest card duplicates to get there. At the same time this all makes it extremely complicated and confusing for new players.
Conclusion
Everyone aside from whales who will try to flip bulk buys for a profit will likely buy rebellion packs on the secondary market. If some measures are taken to make it way harder for Bots to get their hands on the reward packs there should be no problem to keep them as part of the reward chests. If for some reason it gets to a DAO vote to have no packs in rewards and it passes I fear a further complete exodus from Splinterlands.
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THIS. People are pretty irrational though 🤷♀️ so it wouldn't surprise me if it passed. They think it will help Rebellion hold value but all it'll do is tank the card rental market and the value of old cards even more. People rent with what they are able to earn.
Everything in the Splinterverse has a double edge sword. Bots at one end and the manual player at the other. Its a hard thing to balance and I'm happy I'm not the one trying to decide how.
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Thanks for sharing! - @alokkumar121
Thanks for sharing! - @alokkumar121
