Not the start that I hoped for this season with a rather big losing week which was a combination of bad variance but also some mistakes made.
- First off, the biggest position on Antwerp +0.25 / +0 turned out to have good closing line value as the line ended in a -0.25. Antwerp also never deserved to lose this match with an unfortunate Penalty against which was very light and also a penalty not given with both were debatable calls that could have gone both ways. That said, Antwerp also disappointed mostly because they didn't seem to be willing to play and take risks whatsoever in the 1st half. Still, them losing this match really is one of those rare situational outcomes even though at the same time it's starting to get predictable for things to turn out this way similar to last season. It also just shows that most likely I am not correct when believing there is a big edge on a pre-game bet.
- I also had Genk as an early bet which was a risk that didn't work out as Heynen got injured in the mid-week and their coach very heavily rotated.
- I have also been putting a bit too much pressure on myself to get to a 8-10 unit weekly betting volume while there is 1 match less each week now. This got me to almost double the stake that I would take compared to last season and also take some positions that I shouldn't have taken the risk on. While I'm perfectly able to handle the swings, I do need to get used to it a bit and starting with somewhat of a losing streak doesn't really help. Somehow that is always how it tends to go when moving up.
- There were 2 situations in the past weeks where I took a speculative gamble on the underdog (against Union) which both backfired and it were situations where I just should have sit back.
- There was a missed Penalty from Mechelen late in the match which would have made a -0.7 unit loss into a +0.1 unit win.
- I also feel I'm a bit too much in auto-pilot mode and maybe a bit unfocused during some matches often also having a poker table open.
On the bright side, the overall damage so far is just limited to -1.8 unit which is nothing compared to a -20 unit downswing which very much is possible for me to have at some point. I did well on corner bets which helped.
Moving forward
If anything, week 2 was somewhat of a wake-up call that I need to be sharper without wanting to force anything. It is actually crazy how sharp the markets are already right now and this is getting tighter and tighter each season. I have had 15+ of these losing weeks with 2 units or more loss in the last 5 years so it's nothing out of the ordinary. I once even had close to a -5 unit losing week. The key right now is to keep my focus and just keep grinding without changing much. If anything I'm not in danger whatsoever of chasing and rather need to watch out that I don't all of a sudden grow too cautious.
So yeah, this week really sucked and was not fun at all but it's part of the journey and in a way it gives an extra drive to do better.
Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2022-2023
I went 1W-3L on the pre-game bets but at the same time 2 of the losers +1 other losing bet I added a bit more as Crypto bets which also kind of hurt as I never expected all 3 to lose and actually hoped to potentially put some profit to work as there are some coins I want to get into more.
Previous 3 Seasons Result
Regular Season 2023-2024 Personal Betting Chart
While I did manage to increase my average stake to 0.2 units which is not fully representable as I had different bets on basically the same outcome in a full 1 unit bet. I won't force myself too much to get to 8+ units especially since there is 1 match less with the market being pretty sharp and I will see where it all goes.
Regular Season Results 2023-2024
Week 02 Results 38 Bets | 12W-24L-02P | Staked 07.627u | -2.415u Loss
Week 01 Results 30 Bets | 12W-09L-09P | Staked 05.268u | +0.635u Profit
Total Season 2022-2023 Results
68 Bets | 24W-33L-11P | 12.895 Staked | -1.780u Loss | -13.80% ROI
Previous Seasons Personal Betting Results [8239 Bets +3.77% ROI]
Season 2022-2023 | 1598 Bets +4.71% ROI
Season 2021-2022 | 1364 Bets +2.72% ROI
Season 2020-2021 | 1504 Bets +4.37% ROI
Season 2019-2020 | 1406 Bets +2.48% ROI
Season 2018-2019 | 1090 Bets +2.47% ROI
Season 2017-2018 | 821 Bets +7.22% ROI
Crypto & Blockchain-Based Bookies and Exchanges that I'm personally using with some allowing anonymous betting with no KYC or personal restrictions...
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Play2Earn Games That I'm personally Playing Right Now...
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It was a tough weekend. Not a lot of goals and strange games and ref calls.
Luckily there is always a next round.
Good luck next week!
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