Yesterday I mentioned in my post whether the 4 year crypto cycle is still a thing and whether history will keep on repeating itself. I do think this is an obvious viewpoint to suggest at some point there has to be something that triggers a crypto bull cycle and if it is not the halving then what is it? We have all gone with the view point crypto was guided by the halving of Bitcoin mining rewards and after x amount of time each cycle a peak of that cycle would happen.
Many things have changed since the last crypto Bull cycle in 2021 as crypto is no longer frowned upon and as seen as a bad negative technology. Today we have governments buying Bitcoin as a store of value and we have institutions along with investors buying up ETF's pf Bitcoin and Ethereum. There will be other cryptos joining the ETF's on offer and this has to change or effect crypto somewhere. We know there are only 21 million Bitcoin and no more so if 10 million Bitcoin were being held locked away by institutions and governments and another 3 million have been lost or misplaced that type of volume not hitting the markets has to affect a crypto cycle. Common sense tells you this as the man in the street investor is no longer the ones running the show.
Yesterday in one of my comments on my post @markkujantunen mentioned that there is talk of the 4 year cycle moving to a 5.4 year cycle. This I had never heard of before so I thought it was advisable to see what was being said as this affects us all if true.
The above video shows how Raoul Paul And Arthur Hayes believe the 4 year cycle ahs changed and this was never about the Bitcoin halving. This is more about US economics and financing the debt which has grown so large ($9 trillion) and macro economics the cycle has been extended.
You are probably a little skeptical like myself about the market possibly having moved from 4 years to 5.4 years. What about all the other previous cycles and why the 4 year time line. Apparently they all coincided with debt relief and printing money so in the 2018 bull cycle just prior to that happening we had Chinese/America trade war taxing and the governments both printed money. In 2021 we had the covid helicopter stimulus cheques which was to help boost the economy.
Liquidity in the markets does make perfect sense and yes they could be right and in my mind the 4 year cycle is still in play until it is not. The only way we will know for sure if there is no Bull cycle peaks over the coming months and the market carries on as it is. Theory's are great and are theory's until they are proven to be correct so it would be stupid to go along blindly with this narrative until it is proven one way or the other. The one positive part is we do not have long to wait to find out. I have to say I am on the fence with this and very happy either way as having another year accumulating would be a win before it is time to sell and take profits.
Posted Using INLEO
crypto is for the long haul