Everything is red in the crypto world today as another weekend looms with so much uncertainty of what is going to happen next. Alt coins have been pummeled so hard already there is not much more to drop before reaching last cycles low levels. The only thing I have not seen on social media is people calling the bottom is in lol.
This week I have had both my friends who are now my crypto students asking questions of what to do next. Both of them have been in crypto before and by this point would have chickened out and sold already which is absurd. One is staked and earning and the other just has his coins sitting. The one thing they both have in common is they have never made any profit from crypto and have bought and sold at the wrong times due to not understanding the manipulation and panic selling.
They bought COTI at $0.10c which is still a decent entry point or was up until a week or two ago.
I do understand their concerns as they did buy and invest at what then seemed like a great time, but funny enough that price has dropped devaluing their investment close to 70%. All you can do is smile because they think I am nuts for not being concerned and tell them to relax and go with the flow. We have seen this all before especially with the FUD we endured for a good 6 or 7 years and now political manipulation.
I have told them this week if the price drops any more then if they have spare funds to grab a few extra coins because this cannot last. The thing is no one is 100% certain what is happening except we are in the 4th quarter of the 4th year in the 4 year crypto cycle. History tells us this will all turn around if history is going to repeat itself and with the time ticking many are questioning is the 4 year cycle still in play.
Many are saying the mining rewards being halved are so minimal they don't drive the market like they used to anymore as trading has more influence. The traders from Wall Street and institutions have more influence than the Bitcoin halving and this could be very true. I hope this is not the case as it at least gave us non traders an idea of what the market was going to do or give us a guide to some sort of time line.
I am not going to rule out the 4 year crypto cycle because until it doesn't happen it is not broken and if it is indeed broken will mean we may have more time to accumulate. No one for certain is 100$ sure either way and I am not falling for the trap we heard last cycle of a super cycle. It seems these fun and games happen every cycle and is all part of the fun being invested in crypto. You have to enjoy the growth opportunities right now whilst many are so negative because they have not printed huge profits in their time frames they had thought would happen. Crypto and alts will bounce back soon enough with the markets turning green, we just need to be patient and thick skinned.
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Kyle Chasse put out a video the other day where he quoted Raul Pal and some other macro guy who'd done some digging and found out that the macro liquidity cycle is 5.4 years now instead of 4+ years. That cycle drives Bitcoin and pretty much all assets. They believe the four-year cycle is over.
This is great thank you for the link. This is believable and we shall find out soon enough if this theory is correct or not.
It will be a difficult one talking your students to understanding. Very few care about history during red seasons but just as you've said, they always come and go.
No they have no option lol. They have never made any profit from crypto and have to follow my lead or they know they have zero chance.
Funny thing last night before reading this I have practically called a bottom on Bitcoin and altcoins while getting really concerned about gold.
It probably is in even though I would say there is 50/50 we could still go lower. This depends if the 4 year cycle is still in play or not.
I just unloaded the remaining small capital I have. Nothing to do but wait either for additional capital or for the bounce.
No harm in adding to ones bags now even if it did drop a little more. We can never know the exact right time when to purchase or sell.