It’s time for my weekly look at the Bitcoin (BTC) price action for the week and try to make some sense of it all, and maybe make a prediction or two. It’s been another good week despite some red days, and I’m seeing a lot of reasons to be optimistic.
Please note I am on vacation the week of August 8-13 and no articles will be coming out that week.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advice.
Weekly Chart Analysis
Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that we have basically an indecision candle showing on this week, following two solid weeks of pretty decent growth. It could be a sign of a reversal incoming, or it could just be the market taking a little breather after making a serious push up off the $30,000 line after it fell below it back on 21 July.
Like usual, the weekly chart is not telling me a whole lot more than “this is what the price movements look like each week”, and there is no real pattern here. I guess I could point out that we managed to wick up past the upper resistance line further than we have in awhile, and coming off a fresh high point. as well as seemingly getting some support from the 20 week EMA.
Daily Chart Analysis
Now on to my favorite chart, the daily one. This one is giving me a fair bit to work with, and I have to say, I am liking what I see. First, we had the nice climb from $30,000, all the way up to almost $42,600. That’s an over 40% climb in one straight shot with a single, barely red day during it.
Of course, we did hit resistance at that point and have since had a retracement back below the $41,000 line, which I said last week was going to be my signal that things were back on track, and I’m still standing by that being the signal I’m waiting for. What is nice to see, is that even though we didn’t maintain the $41,000 line, we did manage to stay above it for a couple of days, the first time we have maintained a price that high since mid June.
Currently we are sitting atop all 3 EMAs, and we had the 20 and 50 cross back over into an uptrend signal back on the weekend, our RSI has moved up past the center line, and our ATR is starting to heat up from the price pump, so the indicators are all liking what they see as well.
Right now the price is struggling at the $40,000 line, which has been one of my lines forever now, so it’s expected that the price gets a little pressure getting past it. The candle for today has literally started only a few minutes before that screenshot, so still plenty of time for it to be pushed into a green one.
Bitcoin Dominance
Things started with the dominance factor rapidly rising to almost 50%, as money flowed into Bitcoin as the price was pumping, but then as it reached it peak, it fell right back down to where it was. What’s interesting, the price didn’t fall back to where it was, but dominance factor did, which tells me a bit of money went flooding into the alt coins when the price of Bitcoin stalled out and retraced.
This can clearly be seen on the price charts of any of the major alts, where prices have not had as big a retracement as Bitcoin has. Hell, if you look at Ethereum, it has barely slowed down on it’s continued rise, which would be expected with the London hardfork coming into play tomorrow. Cardano is making pushes, even with smart contracts seemingly pushed back a month further than I was expecting. The big alts are holding on very well right now.
While I’m not ready to declare alt season is back in full swing, this is an interesting development to keep our eyes on, as we may see another alt season when the bull run returns, driven by some of the big alts having big updates in the not too distant future.
My Prediction
So now the hard part, trying to predict what is going to happen with the price of Bitcoin. At this point, I think it’s safe to say that I am not expecting us to crash down below $30,000 anymore. I actually think that we are going to see our support line be around my $36,500 line that has been giving us a lot of resistance so far this summer. From what I am seeing in the charts now, I think that’s going to be the low point of this current swing, because I do expect us to have a bit more to drop here in our retracement.
Once we find out support and start coming back up, we need to take another run at the $41,000 line, because being able to take and hold that is going to be the critical move. The champagne is on ice, but I still need to see us take and hold that line before I’ll pop the top on it and call us back to a good place.
If we can’t take that line, we may see a little more sideways action until the market heats back up, but I would expect that to stay within the $36,500-$41,000 range, and I really don’t see us bleeding out below that again, but it’s not entirely out of the question.
I do think the market is ready to start running again, things heated up last week and we had a very nice run, and it just needs to cool off a little bit before going again, a standard market retracement is all I think this current reversal is, and I believe we are going to start seeing more of the green again.
Socials And Other Links
Find me on social media on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Telegram and noise.cash.
If you enjoyed this content, you can check me out every weekday. My posts start at my website, but you can also find them cross posted at Publish0x, LeoFinancial, Hive, and read.cash.
You can also sign up for my newsletter which I send out every Friday with news and whatnot from the crypto space, delivered right to your inbox!
You can also find links to resources such as research and news sites over at this link.
Want some more content right now? Check out some of my previous posts:
Next Level Swaps: SwapSpaceExplained
Yam
Uniswap V3
Why Is DeFi Expensive
A few referral links, in case you are interested in the service, and it also helps me out.
Binance – large centralized exchange – referral link saves you 10% on trading fees
Coinbase – basic crypto exchange – referral link gets you bonus crypto on first deposit
Cointiply – very good crypto faucet and earning site – no bonus for you on this referral unfortunately
Originally Posted On My Website: https://ninjawingnut.xyz/2021/08/04/weekly-btc-7/
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the person sharing the post on Twitter as long as they are registered with @poshtoken. Sign up at https://hiveposh.com.