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RE: The Forking Of Steem: More Decentralized Social Media Opportunities

in LeoFinance4 years ago

Many opportunities, indeed... but I am also skeptical. Inevitably, we face the problem of "dilution."

Let's not forget that there was WEKU long before the current situation, a Steem copy in response to a previous hardfork/policy change. And then there was BearShares, which was a split from WEKU because someone disagreed with the handling of affiliate bonuses. And then of course there's WhaleShares which is yet another alternative "we can do better" thing.

I'm still seeing the fact that Hive has succeeded as well as it has as a small miracle! Normally, the "first mover advantage" is all but impossible to overcome because most people are too apathetic to respond to new alternatives with more enthusiasm than a cautious "I'm gonna wait and see." Hive DID have the benefit of such a large proportion of the primary content creators and influencers were onboard from the start.

I have a feeling both Blurt and Zapata will find it extremely difficult to overcome the vast majority's desire to just power down and cash out. I think people will either LEAVE completely, or they will merely COPY their Hive posts... and where's the Business Reason to just operate a copy of something else, with little original differentiation to attract interest.

My mildly educated guess would be that after a few months — IF the tokens can be traded anywhere — both of these sites will have little ORIGINAL activity, and their respective tokens will decline in value to some fractions of a cent.

I hope they both prove me wrong! Sincerely, I do....

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At the end of the day the whole of crypto and bitcoin is one great experiment, if we don't try we don't know. It is clear Hive had the prefect media storm behind their success, that was quite a cinderella story. Blurt intends to build a solid foundation and community and prefers to grow at a stable and sustainable pace rather than be like "Z-crash" which mooned rapidly and fell back down in a short period of time.