It's called Airdrop Futures and it was just launched on Polymarket.
If you don't know what Polymarket is, well, it's a place where users can ask simple questions like: "Will X going to happen?", and then place binary bets on whether or not that thing will actually happen.
Following the latest trends in crypto, Polymarket thought to ask this simple question: "When X project will launch an airdrop?" (or "do you think they will launch an airdrop?") and let users bet on that.
As with any futures projects, this is a way to gain some insight on what users expect, not necessarily on what will happen.
Among the projects for which bets are accepted now there are quite a few popular ones, like MetaMask, OpenSea and Bored Ape Yacht Club, and it's very interesting to see what people think about them. For instance, at the moment of writing, the odds for MetaMask to launch a token were 32 against 68, meaning 32% people thought they will launch a token, while 68% thought they won't.
I can see only one problem with it, but it's a big one. It goes by the name "insider trading", and it means people with knowledge of a certain airdrop happening for sure, like project owners, or team members, have information that will allow them to make huge profits.
Nevertheless, it's a nice development.
Oh, and I didn't see any Cosmos project listed there, which can mean only two things:
- either Polymarket doesn't know about this ecosystem, which is bad
- or they know about it but they are 100% sure that each and every single project there will launch a token, which is good. At least that's what happened so far.
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Insider trading will definitely be an issue and there is no real way to track everything. I guess people could get their family members to bet so things are even more untraceable.
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Ha of course something like that would show up one day! Let’s gamble on crypto to make it even more exciting! The insider trading is a very serious point indeed! Still kind of a funny development though :-)
Airdrops are the most excitable part of cryptocurrency it seems.
Funny how people attack "helicopter money" yet then go crazy when it is coming to them in crypto.
We all love free stuff.
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Yeah, totally 100% agree on that. Although one can make the case that people aren't upset at the helicopter money per se, but rather at their unpredictability and lack of control. If you look at some of the airdrops, they are hardly claimed, which means people aren't interested and don't see future value in them. Whereas in government printing, we're all kinda forced to accept the shitty airdrop, unconditionally.
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Yeah well in the states, shitty or not, I never met anyone who was upset when the government put more money in their bank account.
The bigger danger with governments is when they start taking money out like in Cyprus and a few other places that experienced that.
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ATOM holder here...
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You nailed the issue on the head:
"Insider Trading" as people inside the decision circle could take bet and make money out of a non-public information hehe.
Nice article and fun platform though.
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That's a cool concept that shows how innovative blockchain and crypto technologies are.
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I think there was a prediction market with PAL Token. I can't find what it was at the moment. Am I remembering anything wrong. Promoting a prediction market on Hive could be a cool Dapp if enough people and rewards were part of it :)
!PIZZA
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Listed a search engine you can ask questions concerning crypto currency is good. That's a good development.
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