I tend to be the very bearish when it comes to COVID-19 and anything COVID-19 related, mainly because I tend to think of the pandemic as something akin to 21st Century version of Gavrilo Princip - an event that served as an excuse and catalyst for something bad that was brewing for years, if not decades. Further problem with such events is that their impact is becoming obvious only after some time. For example, most Europeans became aware what real consequences of 1929 Wall Street Crash were only in 1931.
Small glimpse of long term COVID-19 economic consequences could be seen if we compare election results held this Summer in Croatia and Montenegro. Croatia held elections in early July and governing party HDZ comfortably held to power, mostly due to elections being held before the peak of tourism seasons. Voters apparently accepted official media narrative of pandemic being defeated with strict March/April lockdown and foreign tourists - upon which most Croatian economy depend - returning just like they did in 2019.
In neighbouring Montenegro elections were held in late August and DPS, party of Milo Đukanović, president who was at power continously since 1989, was defeated and had to relinquish power for the first time in history. The reason is simple - elections were held after the peak of tourism season, and Montenegrins, whose economy is even more dependent on tourism, saw that they won't see any money that had previously could expect from government.
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