When HIVE started trading at Bittrex, transfer was disabled after some time. HIVE hit the ceiling of 33 cents, Steem was also trading at 18 cents. Total value of former Steem chain hit recent all time high of 51 cents that value Steem reached almost a year ago. Few traders made some profit both selling Steem and HIVE at Bittrex and @steem-engine (HIVEP/SteemP) by acting fast.
When Bittrex enabled deposits again, along with BTC's weakness, the combined below of HIVE and Steem reached low of 35 cents, a recent low after HIVE was announced.
What happened? A large number of holders sold both Steem and HIVE. If we assume Steem believers sold HIVE or HIVE believers sold Steem.
Now, if we assume that there are more HIVE believers than Steem, then the ratio of HIVE/Steem should increase for next two month or so. Interestingly, the ratio is down to 1.5 from as high as 1.9. It seems that both Steem and HIVE are sold for BTC or fiats. Money sold from Steem hardly entered HIVE.
If we assume that 70% former Steem holders are believers in HIVE, then gradually HIVE's price should increase against Steem. HIVEian will see money from Steem is an opportunity to increase their HIVE holding. A big portion for HIVEians may think that they may not need to increase their HIVE holding, therefore, they will be satisfied with selling Steem and pocketing the fiat or BTC.
If most portion of money from selling Steem comes to HIVE, then HIVE should gradually increase in value in next couple of weeks. On the other hand, Steem's price should decrease as a selling pressure from HIVEians. There are Steem believers too (e.g. say, they 30% of former Steem chain), they may buy back Steem since it is getting cheaper.
The action of Justin Sun should be interesting. If he wants to protect his portfolio, he may buy back large number of Steem clandestinely. Though it will increase the power of centralization in Steem, but it will hold value for Steem. As a result, it is a great opportunity for HIVEian to get a good value for their departing Steem.
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The bottom line is that for HIVE believers Steem keeping a floor and HIVE increasing its value against Steem would be the ideal case. If the combined value of Steem and HIVE kept increasing from current low of 33 cents, then it will be another positive sign for HIVE chain.
Now there are couple of wild cards ahead. BTC halving is just less than 7 weeks away. BTC can spike sharply and it can bring the whole crypto market along with it in positive direction.
Another good move would be release of SMT on HIVE before Steemit does. Listing of HIVE on Binance, Huobi, OKCoin and finally, Coinbase would be a great boast. Moreover, some portion of 83M HIVE from @steem.dao can be used to distribute through Coinbase Earn project to bring in large number of new users, investors and media attention.
Therefore, next two months or 13 weeks after HIVE release is very crucial. It can usher a great harbingers for HIVE community with some upcoming wild cards such as BTC halving, SMT rollout or even Coinbase listing.
Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions. This opinion is only for educational purpose.
Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.
Thanks for reading.
@dtrade
Cryptominer , occasional trader and tech blogger since 2013
I think Hive will continue to tank along with Steem but I think Steem will hold better than Hive and eventually rise and leave Hive behind.
I love your posts, very thought provoking and strategic in nature.
Thanks for the complements ;)
well, this is to the point and we will see again some more interesting times ahead.
That is how I see the situation. The ratio you cited is my guess. About 70% are for Hive although Sun could easily offset it.
The question to me, for STEEM, is does Sun just dump his tokens (soon or after a pump) or does he intend on making Steem into something.
If it is the later, he could get the price moving up over time.
I remember steem was trading around 15 cents before tron aquisition.
Now the both coins cumulative even with the drop are trading more than 30 cents. Is there more room for prices to go down?