Ah shit here we go again!
So we got our first death-cross and now local supports are falling away. This is not the end of the world but it might take us a while to climb our way out of this hole that we are still actively digging. Today happens to be a full moon, and full moon dumps are quite common before recovery pumps. However Trump's inauguration is also a week from now, and no one should be surprised if it ends up being a sell-the-news event. Everyone can see it coming a mile away.
Luckily for us the last huge sell-the-news event we experienced was the Blackrock ETF launch almost exactly one year ago. However, instead of actually being bearish it ended up being the ultimate 15% buy-the-dip discount and subsequently exploded into all time highs just one month later. Could the same thing happen this year? Definitely maybe!
But even if February and March are bearish disappointments that's going to set the scene for a killer summer rally. Sell in May and Go Away, as they say, but also we've seen quite a few peaks in June. This being said September has always been a killer buy-the-dip month, so be ready for that. In fact if September ends up being an amazing pump into crazy all time highs I'm going to be extremely worried we're getting an obvious top signal.
That being said I don't think this cycle is going to get cut short. I honestly think the opposite a this point: that the peak of this cycle is going to pop in late somewhere in 2026 and trick everyone into thinking "this time is different" like happens every cycle. I don't know how the market vampire swings this every single time, but this is what happens... every single time. "tHIs tImE iS dIFFerenT!" Hm yeah it's not though. Don't be greedy and balance your positions so it doesn't matter as much where price goes... especially if you're already rich beyond dreams or even just hit major financial milestones.
When to go long?
Well my plan is to start going long around $85k. This is very near the 100 day moving average and certainly a good place to start. I view $72k as a quite uncrackable support at this point and if we were to flash crash anywhere near that area I'll be making huge irresponsible bets. However, there is a lot of economic trouble in the greater market:
Lot's of people worried about DXY.
For those who need a reminder the DXY is the RELATIVE strength of the United States Dollar. The DXY going up doesn't necessarily mean the value of the dollar is going up. More often than not it just means that the basket of currencies it's pegged to is going down faster than the world reserve currency.
The US Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the United States Dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The basket of currencies consists of the Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British Pound, and Swedish Krona.
Why is having a strong dollar bad?
Should people enjoy having more purchasing power with their money, right? Ah yes well that's all well and good until we realize that we operate under the fractional reserve Ponzi. In a debt-based system imagine what happens when the debt you owe back to the bank increases in value. Maybe you bought a car for $40k. Imagine you look at your loan one day and see it's gone up to $50k. This is the type of thing that can happen on an international level when the dollar has relative strength against say the Euro or the Pound. Owing back more money than one bargained for can totally mess up the entire debt based ecosystem.
But wait! There's more!
Many are seeing the 10-year bond yields going up and alarm bells are going off. The 10-year is dictated by the free market, so when it does something that we don't expect this normally implies that the free-market is not buying the narrative that central banks are selling.
As a reminder when bond yields go up it means that institutions are dumping their bonds on the market at a discount. The extra yield comes from dumping the asset for less than its perceived current worth. Thus, the free-market thinks we are in for a rough ten years economically if institutions are dumping one of the safest perceived assets at a loss. Makes sense considering inflation is not going down but the FED also can't increase rates because doing so would choke out the banks.
If yields are allowed to rise uncontrollably, bond portfolios plummet in value, the entire banking system is insolvent, and everything comes crashing down.
That will almost certainly not be allowed.
This time will not be different.
What about Hive?
Our token has been bleeding pretty good along with everything else, as expected. However, we're still at rank #320 on the market cap. Considering we started at #500 before the recent pump we are still doing well on the relative scale. I'll be comfortable making some moves on Hive once we get back to the 25 day moving average, currently at 41 cents and rising... although I may just wait for January to be over to see how this sell-the-news event pans out.
Conclusion
The panic is starting to set in as the current downtrend continues, but also we are still only 15% from the tippy top. Will we get another classic 30% retracement before moving back up. Hopefully that's exactly what happens because I'd like to start degen gambling again and I need a decent entry-point to justify it.
When in doubt, zoom out!
76 and 69k points of interest imo, we could go a long way down and still remain bullish (but everyone will cry BTC is dead again lol)
I placed orders at:
0.389
0.410
0.426
Hive did quite well I find. Better than I had expected since this volume interest-fest. So that is cool.
But yeah BTC aint looking so shiny so it will take more time. Good we have time.. no rush right? The cycle repeats anyways :)
Great, now I have to wait until 2026? I was finally accepting the fact that I would have to sit and wait through most of 2025. I'm going to be old and decrepit by the time the bull market hits. About the only thing I will be able spend my crypto gains on is a set of dentures and some replacement joints!
Hm no I'm saying it will end in 2026.
It already started in October.
For Bitcoin anyway, many alts are still arguably lagging.
As I've said a couple times before the real alt market comes when BTC can sustain a price significantly higher than $100k for a few weeks. Thinking summer at the latest. Could be next month at the earliest.
:) I was just giving you a hard time. I always feel like people keep pushing the timeline back when things don't happen exactly as they thought they would.
Hm my timeline hasn't changed at all November of this year is an extreme top danger zone.
Bitcoin hasn't done anything for two months straight and it's testing a lot of patience.
Considering where we are at Q1, Q2, and Q4 can all be huge rallies.
If Q3 performs well I'm worried.
September should always be the buy-the-dip month without fail.
If Q1 is a bust I'll assume all that action gets rolled into Q2.
These are the typical patterns I've noticed on the yearly cycle.
Summer into early Fall is what I have been planning on. Minus September because September always seems to be a special kind of hell.
LoL September is awesome if you're a buyer :D
Unfortunately we degens are always hopelessly long.
Maybe we can remedy that this time.
Fingers crossed! A lot of it will depend on if the prior months work out the way we hope.
yes it would be quite hard to buy the dip if there was no defined pump to sell
but that's also why I like to trade on leverage during the crazy times
go long in september and then close the position in oct or nov
this has worked out for me like 3 years in a row
Better than spending your own money on that 😀
Good point!
Looks like 2017 to me...
I want to say that 2017 was just up and to the right but I'm sure that's not how if felt in real time at all.
I like your analysis, thank you for sharing this.
I think 80-85K would be a healthy pullback and the alts would bleed out quite a bit and set us up for what I have been saying. 120K peak in March and then alt season April and May and then people take the money to have their summer fun and people are gassed out for Q3 and Q4 so it never quite gets back to highs be we have some rides.
People aren't saying this because the data has been skewed but this is the worst job market since the great recession and inflation is kicking people's teeth in. People can say my evidence is anecdotal but it's pretty sound in my opinion sourced from different evidence around the country.
Unless the strategic reserve gets cranked up in high gear I personally don't see $175K BTC or any of that this cycle.
The fact that the 21 day has turned from support to resistance is worrying for the short-term. But what the heck, I keep DCAing in anyway!
Like one good song says "But in the end, it doesn't even matter"
-Linkin park
It will be fine and go up up up!