Starting with some speculation.
The Big Golden Cross (25/100) is almost guaranteed to happen in two days. Bitcoin needs to crash below $27k at this point to prevent this from happening. Every day that ticks by the MA(100) is dropping $30k price points off the average and adding $28k to it (line go down), while the MA(25) is losing $26k snapshots and replacing them with $28k (line go up).
Combined with ETF FOMO, Gary Gensler changing his tone, multiple EFT applicants making revisions, the SEC opening healthy communication, and Larry Fink going on national TV and calling crypto a "flight to quality" all point to the same direction >> moon soon; November good. I expect to see a 20% pump on this cross over the next week or so.
My BTC long is firmly in the green at this point, and I expect to be pleasantly surprised over the next 30 days. Note that a lot of this value formerly existed as Hive & HBD in the recent past, but I simply think that BTC is the way to go in the short term. Hive is simply too unpredictable, no matter how bullish I am on the home team as it were.
But wasn't this post supposed to be about Hive?
Indeed it was and is about Hive. If I can acquire 18k more HP I'll be up to a quarter million voting power. Exciting stuff. In fact perhaps if my BTC gamble does well I'll be able to make it there before the end of the year. Would be fun.
In any case I've been lurking in this random Twitter space whenever I see it pop up at night. These guys are apparently Litecoin bulls. I know right? A rare breed of degen to be sure. It's funny because two of my friends I introduced to crypto in 2018 are still LTC bros to this day. I may need to convince them to diversify back into BTC at the peak of the next run.
Point being that in this particular Twitter space the dialog is quite interesting. I almost feel the need to constantly interject in the conversation, but never do. They're always talking about things that Hive has already solved.
- communication platform
Last night they were talking about Nigeria.
I wanted to jump in there and be like BACK OFF: NIGERIA, VENEZUELA, AND CUBA ARE OURS! Haha. Did you know that flippin' Nigeria has a larger population than Brazil? 223M people. I didn't realize Nigeria was so dense. In fact if you look at the biggest countries by population Nigeria is RANK SIX. How crazy is that?
Another thing we can see from this chart is that the demographics of China and Russia are completely screwed. USA isn't in great shape either but at least it's not a negative growth rate. Imagine what happens when all the boomers retire or up and die. It is known that the demographics issue is likely going to be a worldwide problem at some point that will leave a gaping deflationary void within the economy.
The reason why Nigeria is very important to crypto (and perhaps even learning to code) is that the native language of Nigeria is actually English. That's a huge barrier to entry for other countries in which people who might need crypto the most can't actually communicate with those who understand it the best. Nigeria does not have this problem.
In addition Nigerian citizens have already very much embraced crypto and reject their failed fiat Naira currency. On top of this they've also rejected the eNaira CBDC that the government was trying to shove down their throats. This puts Nigeria at the top of the list in terms of who is primed for mainstream adoption first out of all other countries in the world. It's a very weird conclusion to come to but it seems pretty legit. A little help goes a long way in a country like Nigeria.
In addition to all that Nigerian citizens are more than willing to disobey direct orders from the government. Corruption at the highest levels is so blatant that everyone understands these people can't be taken seriously at face value. Compare this to a country like USA where many of the citizens still blindly believe authority has their best interests at heart, and we can see a world of difference in the culture and ideology. Nigeria seems to be ahead of the curve on all metrics except for the ability to invest outside capital into the system.
Peter: So why don't you buy bitcoin?
Her: I have nothing to save.
So once again we see another point for a network like Hive. The real hurdle is creating the jobs in the first place. Imagine Hive as a digital nation (or even a physical nation). What if we onboarded a hundred million people. Do we really expect all of them to be bloggers? The current usecase of Hive is actually quite niche. We need more jobs and we need those jobs to generate more value than the ones that exist today. Easier said than done to be sure.
Hive needs a pipeline.
We need to be training users to provide value to the network for little to zero upfront cost. What would we be training them to do? Well the most obvious path would be learning to code and build out the network, but again the overhead cost of that kind of training is high and providing it for free is seemingly unfeasible. Also once again we hit a wall of reality when we realize that 1% or less of the population actually has an interest in coding and development. Hive will need dozens of job-types in order to succeed in the developing world. The only investment we can ask from the citizens of the world is that of their time and attention.
Another potential job that a network like Hive could offer involves different types of content creation. Art, music, and logic could be filtered through NFTs to provide ownership of the creation process of something much bigger. Take a video game for example. How crazy would it be if you could do voice-acting for a video game and get paid for the work, and even have an NFT with your name on it that credits you for the work you provided to the greater project.
Unfortunately all of these concepts require a level of infrastructure that quite frankly feels like an almost insurmountable task this early in the game. Still, it's good to have goals and targets to achieve 5 to 10 years out. Given enough time and organization these upgrades are quite doable.
It's also important to note that once infrastructure like this gets built it has exponential staying power. The open source nature of crypto allows prospects like this to be cloned and forked 1000 times over should a template prove itself successful.
There is no policeman running around enforcing cease and desist orders. Intellectual property will inevitably cease to exist because the real value is in the communities that reinforce the infrastructure. Cloning the infrastructure has no value without the underlying community, which is something that has been proven many times over in crypto.
It's very weird to hear other communities, especially ones like Litecoin, understand a lot of the problems that lie before us. Interestingly enough all these communities think it is somehow their responsibility to fix all the problems and gain all the adoption. That's not how it works. Everyone has their niche and should stay in their lane. Nobody can do everything. That's the entire point of an economy in the first place. We must export what we can produce and import what we cannot, just like a real country.