Innervating Hive Bullishness

in LeoFinance4 months ago

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Starting with some speculation.

The Big Golden Cross (25/100) is almost guaranteed to happen in two days. Bitcoin needs to crash below $27k at this point to prevent this from happening. Every day that ticks by the MA(100) is dropping $30k price points off the average and adding $28k to it (line go down), while the MA(25) is losing $26k snapshots and replacing them with $28k (line go up).

Combined with ETF FOMO, Gary Gensler changing his tone, multiple EFT applicants making revisions, the SEC opening healthy communication, and Larry Fink going on national TV and calling crypto a "flight to quality" all point to the same direction >> moon soon; November good. I expect to see a 20% pump on this cross over the next week or so.

My BTC long is firmly in the green at this point, and I expect to be pleasantly surprised over the next 30 days. Note that a lot of this value formerly existed as Hive & HBD in the recent past, but I simply think that BTC is the way to go in the short term. Hive is simply too unpredictable, no matter how bullish I am on the home team as it were.


But wasn't this post supposed to be about Hive?

Indeed it was and is about Hive. If I can acquire 18k more HP I'll be up to a quarter million voting power. Exciting stuff. In fact perhaps if my BTC gamble does well I'll be able to make it there before the end of the year. Would be fun.

In any case I've been lurking in this random Twitter space whenever I see it pop up at night. These guys are apparently Litecoin bulls. I know right? A rare breed of degen to be sure. It's funny because two of my friends I introduced to crypto in 2018 are still LTC bros to this day. I may need to convince them to diversify back into BTC at the peak of the next run.

Point being that in this particular Twitter space the dialog is quite interesting. I almost feel the need to constantly interject in the conversation, but never do. They're always talking about things that Hive has already solved.

  • fees
  • scaling
  • communication platform
  • security/timelocks

Last night they were talking about Nigeria.

I wanted to jump in there and be like BACK OFF: NIGERIA, VENEZUELA, AND CUBA ARE OURS! Haha. Did you know that flippin' Nigeria has a larger population than Brazil? 223M people. I didn't realize Nigeria was so dense. In fact if you look at the biggest countries by population Nigeria is RANK SIX. How crazy is that?

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Another thing we can see from this chart is that the demographics of China and Russia are completely screwed. USA isn't in great shape either but at least it's not a negative growth rate. Imagine what happens when all the boomers retire or up and die. It is known that the demographics issue is likely going to be a worldwide problem at some point that will leave a gaping deflationary void within the economy.

The reason why Nigeria is very important to crypto (and perhaps even learning to code) is that the native language of Nigeria is actually English. That's a huge barrier to entry for other countries in which people who might need crypto the most can't actually communicate with those who understand it the best. Nigeria does not have this problem.

In addition Nigerian citizens have already very much embraced crypto and reject their failed fiat Naira currency. On top of this they've also rejected the eNaira CBDC that the government was trying to shove down their throats. This puts Nigeria at the top of the list in terms of who is primed for mainstream adoption first out of all other countries in the world. It's a very weird conclusion to come to but it seems pretty legit. A little help goes a long way in a country like Nigeria.

In addition to all that Nigerian citizens are more than willing to disobey direct orders from the government. Corruption at the highest levels is so blatant that everyone understands these people can't be taken seriously at face value. Compare this to a country like USA where many of the citizens still blindly believe authority has their best interests at heart, and we can see a world of difference in the culture and ideology. Nigeria seems to be ahead of the curve on all metrics except for the ability to invest outside capital into the system.


Peter: So why don't you buy bitcoin?
Her: I have nothing to save.

Yeah exactly

So once again we see another point for a network like Hive. The real hurdle is creating the jobs in the first place. Imagine Hive as a digital nation (or even a physical nation). What if we onboarded a hundred million people. Do we really expect all of them to be bloggers? The current usecase of Hive is actually quite niche. We need more jobs and we need those jobs to generate more value than the ones that exist today. Easier said than done to be sure.

Hive needs a pipeline.

We need to be training users to provide value to the network for little to zero upfront cost. What would we be training them to do? Well the most obvious path would be learning to code and build out the network, but again the overhead cost of that kind of training is high and providing it for free is seemingly unfeasible. Also once again we hit a wall of reality when we realize that 1% or less of the population actually has an interest in coding and development. Hive will need dozens of job-types in order to succeed in the developing world. The only investment we can ask from the citizens of the world is that of their time and attention.

Another potential job that a network like Hive could offer involves different types of content creation. Art, music, and logic could be filtered through NFTs to provide ownership of the creation process of something much bigger. Take a video game for example. How crazy would it be if you could do voice-acting for a video game and get paid for the work, and even have an NFT with your name on it that credits you for the work you provided to the greater project.

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Unfortunately all of these concepts require a level of infrastructure that quite frankly feels like an almost insurmountable task this early in the game. Still, it's good to have goals and targets to achieve 5 to 10 years out. Given enough time and organization these upgrades are quite doable.

It's also important to note that once infrastructure like this gets built it has exponential staying power. The open source nature of crypto allows prospects like this to be cloned and forked 1000 times over should a template prove itself successful.

There is no policeman running around enforcing cease and desist orders. Intellectual property will inevitably cease to exist because the real value is in the communities that reinforce the infrastructure. Cloning the infrastructure has no value without the underlying community, which is something that has been proven many times over in crypto.

Conclusion

It's very weird to hear other communities, especially ones like Litecoin, understand a lot of the problems that lie before us. Interestingly enough all these communities think it is somehow their responsibility to fix all the problems and gain all the adoption. That's not how it works. Everyone has their niche and should stay in their lane. Nobody can do everything. That's the entire point of an economy in the first place. We must export what we can produce and import what we cannot, just like a real country.

Sort:  

I feel the SPK network as well as the VSC smart contracts are going to bring our ecosystem/infrastructure to a new level; the first part is revolutionary and the second one feels like we are catching up to the rest of the industry (but with a lot of innovation as well like the HBD bonds etc.). A lot to look forward to in 2024 and beyond

I think the import/export conversation is an interesting one. I still think we have an issue with both as we tend to be in a community that is well known among us but relatively unheard of in the greater crypto community. We have a functioning ecosystem so it is so frustrating to see other projects get more attention and appreciation when they have no real project.

"What if we onboarded a hundred million people. Do we really expect all of them to be bloggers? The current usecase of Hive is actually quite niche."

I really do not agree. All those people are using social media already, texting each other, posting on Fakebook, Twatter, and commenting on Youtool, and etc. If we had the right platform, they'd take to it like fish to water. Of course, they'd take Hive in a totally different direction, because all those Nigerian normies would vote different witnesses. We aren't in a niche industry, but we're a pretty niche part of it.

Taking a look at https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/industry/, internet content is a ~$2,755B industry. There's only a couple industries that have a larger valuation, and the only one that isn't related to internet content is pharmaceutical drugs. Semiconductors 3,063.40B, telecom services 1,022.78B, software infrastructure 3,854.26B, software applications 1,693.48B, and consumer electronics 2,853.51B, are all related to internet content, even dependent on it, and in toto that sector together massively outweighs any other sector of industry. Even when content isn't technically social media, it is people conveying information to people, so it may not be blogging, but I consider movies and music social media, even though they can't hear you when you scream at the screen.

In comparison, all real estate combined is 1,276.13B. Social media is not niche. It is the main driver of the global economy today. Don't sell Hive short, just yet.

Thanks!

I was thinking what should be done and at the end you called it out. Find the niche, stay in your lane and build together is a solid plan. Bridging between communities is good too but providing unique services is important and not trying to do all of the stuff like a conglomerate tries to.

HIVE is a top 5 crypto. Nigeria, Ghana, Venezuela, Cuba have discover that.

Twitter? !LOL

Maybe the new X Fee for New accounts could be good for Hive.

Quarter Million, thats a lot.

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I am interesting in the coding pathway to build something meaningful on Hive. You've stirred my interest - I'm going to have to do some digging now.

We await a safe landing of our leader coin though it may no really be this month but much certain before the year wraps up. It will really pave way for altcoins including hive ahead of 2024

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To support your work, I also upvoted your post!

That's true. No one can do everything. Imagine having a BTC platform, minimg machine and all other things that Hive has
It will just be too much
Everyone should stick to what they know and it will be good for them

Hive needs a pipeline.

Funny, I have been thinking about this lately. Hive OJT. Or something like that. As far as jobs, it sounds really boring, but there are a bunch of online platforms where they hire people to do data entry. I tried one that had me labeling machine learning training data for medical procedures. All training was built into the system. Step one, step two, etc. Graded on work. If you do well you get to do that job for real. But the effort/earnings ratio wasn't worth it. And the training system wasn't that great, looked like it had been thrown together by some other trainees. Could be done better on Hive.

Also did some writing for an outfit called the Urban Writers. They sell on-demand ghostwriting services. You can pay them to write fiction and nonfiction books, SEO articles, etc. I went through their online hiring/training/testing process, which was put together better than the machine learning gig, but still a bit lacking. Again, not worth the effort for me. Very low pay compared to what you can earn freelancing directly with clients.

A ghostwriting service is a natural fit for Hive. But then how decentralized should/can it be? Can clients pay with a credit card to purchase Hive or whatever token it uses? Centralized and easier to use. Or do they just have to get used to using crypto and buy it somewhere else first like everyone else? Decentralized and harder to use. Tough choices.

I wrote a post recently related to this. SaaS ideas for Hive.

right enough not a single person can solve all the Problem which is why we need to start fixing the general problem together
But once a community starts thriving
They would want to have their own token or coin and creat their frontend too

Having been a part of the community from before the fork away from STEEM we lost a lot of the momentum that STEEM had in regards to developers, apps, and pipelines. As one of the many hopeful developers back then, I was creating all sorts of things for STEEM because I could see the benefit in what it had to offer. Now a with Hive proving itself reliable I think it's time to start building on Hive again.

USA isn't in great shape either but at least it's not a negative growth rate.

The US has an immigration 'problem'. That is, immigrants have fueled the growth of this country from its earliest days, and yet today immigrants are detested by a significant percentage of the US electorate. The problem is not in immigration--it's in a failure to regulate that immigration so that it does not negatively impact the economy/society in the short term. In the long term, immigration is essential to offset a drop in 'natural' population growth.

If we are to have a labor force that supports an aging baby boomer population, then we need immigrants. Nobody wants to immigrate to Russia or China. As long as the US remains a magnet for people around the world, we do not have to suffer their negative population growth. The issue is not whether or not we need immigrants. The issue is how to manage the flow of immigrants.

https://cis.org/Report/Estimating-Impact-Immigration-US-Population-Growth

As for your discussion about Hive--the economics of the platform are beyond my ken, but I do agree that growth potential exists in those populations that are looking for external economic resources. It's one of the reasons I'm a big Hive cheerleader. It gives people options who otherwise might not have them. Besides that, of course, I love Hive ;))