Everything is up today.
- Bitcoin has broken $50k to the upside.
- Ethereum approaches $4000.
- Litecoin is above $210.
- Hive spiked above 70 cents.
- BNB is reclaiming $500
Hmmmmm, Yep!
Things are looking pretty good on the speculative side of the equation. Resistance at $50k was a lot more than I anticipated. Luckily, it appears as though supply shock has once again kicked in at a higher level of $47k. However, this local bottom wasn't nearly as convincing as $44k so the chance that we return to this range is high in my opinion ($45k-$50k).
Point of guaranteed return.
This $50k level for BTC is highly significant, because the doubling curve will be at this level at the end of 2022, which is exactly where I think BTC will crash to once the mega-bubble has deflated and we return back to Earth. Selling here could cause one to miss out on massive gains, but at the same time the price is almost guaranteed to return to $50k when this is all over, so selling isn't that risky in this regard. Always maintain balanced positions and you'll never be worried about what the price does.
As far as September is concerned, it's never been a particularly good time for the market. If Bitcoin continues on these moon cycles the market should be fully bottomed out around September 24th as has often proven the case in many other years as well.
At the same time, we've also seen how badly this chart has performed during the current run. Elon Musk really threw a wrench in the cycle when Tesla bought in during February, causing three entire extra months of FOMO buying before the inevitable crash we got in May. It's quite possible that the two months of consolidation we had is all this mega-bubble needs to continue upward till the end of the year, although that's not what I expect will happen.
At this point I find it way too risky to gamble on the market in its current state. $100k Bitcoin is the level everyone is looking for. I'll surely sell a bit once we get close to that target, as there are thousands of bulls that will turn bearish and take gains during that time.
HIVE!
On-chain technical analysis for Hive is getting quite out of control.
- Splinterlands gives us a lot of legitimate data volume.
- HBD trading over $1.05 gives constant deflationary pressure.
- Millions upon millions of tokens are being pulled off exchanges.
The number of tokens on exchanges has been going up since before Hive even forked away from Steem. To see it drop this quickly is just about the best sign we can get. Seeing my stack get deeper and deeper into the 6-figures range is quite surreal. To me, that money isn't real, and in a certain sense this is true. My HivePower is tied to my vote and the very core of my reputation here. HivePower is worth more than money, and more and more users are beginning to realize that fact as the price gets more volatile.
Ethereum x2 away from Bitcoin.
I find it hilarious that if Ethereum went x2 right now it would essentially have the same market cap as Bitcoin. The maximalists think this is an impossibility. Their brains are going to break when Bitcoin gets flipped. Judging by historic patterns this should happen during the peak of the next mega bubble.
At the end of the day Ethereum has a thousand times the functionality and potential of Bitcoin, as Bitcoin at its core is simply a niche asset based on security alone. No one cares about security when crypto isn't under attack. Bitcoin will only be able to regain the #1 spot from Ethereum once the regulators come in to pop the mega-bubble and crypto finds itself under attack once more from the legacy system.
Conclusion
Market looks great today but the 2-week bullish cycle is coming to a close within the week. I'm not bullish on September whatsoever and I think at best we trade flat in between one of these unit bias ranges (either $50k-$55k or $45k-$50k).
At the same time all of this speculation assumes that there will be a mega-bubble at the end of the year, but their are some timelines that place it in October. All I know is that I won't be worried about selling any crypto until we hit the laser-eyes unit-bias level of $100k. Until then I'll be holding and only gambling with very small amount.
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What happened to “200k by the end of 2021” talk? :)
Nothing has changed, just think at this point the alts have major catching up to do.
This is why, ideally, I’ll never power down. Sure, skim off some liquid earnings here and there. But what gets powered up will stay powered up.
For now this sounds great.
Not so sure if Hive is trading higher than $10 a coin.
I think at best we could create a floor at $1 Hive at the end of the bear market.
More likely 50 cents.
At a certain point during peak FOMO the cost of Hive is going to be absurd.
Still, it only takes one or two weeks of powerdown to get a nice hedge going.
I'd be happy with a 50c floor at the bottom of the next bear.
even if hive would hit 50$. The hive i powered up i hold. Price doesn't matter to me at this point. For trading i hold liquid :)
September should be flat
but it starts strong and it may finish
that way for this year.
Lately everything in the economy
is abnormal.
Hive is masking and take
what it can get on the run.
The Koreans are trading it fully.
!BEER
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I particularly think the same way too. I do believe that you're right. I've never for once seen my hive power as liquid money, it's of course what also forms one's identity and helps you decide a lot of things happening in the chain as well.
I'm particularly look at how September will turn out, but I'll take some profit before that time
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What do you think for ETH? i think to sell after $4.500
Personally I think ETH is going to $10k easy.
My goal is to hold almost everything until the end of the year and refactor then.
Thats great. I think to wait far more.
I would definitely sell some now as it will very likely crash to ~3k before going to 15k
This year has been quite unpredictable as far as the markets are concerned. I wouldn't rule out a bullish September all through with the way things are going
Yeah that could be the only way it goes seeing as we are in quite possibly inside the biggest mega-bubble ever. Maybe a "bad September" is really testing and getting rejected at all time highs.
My kind of bad
Well ltc it doing very well, the time to get little earn is right now, and enjoy a little of work, did you remember the alcohol and the girls?, well it is time to get a little.
Go a head.
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yeah right, that money really doesn't seem real!
But with everything going on I am beginning to be a true believer in Hive ;)
You couldn't have said it better and more true! I am stashing Hive Power like my subconscious is telling me and simply I cannot but love this blockchain and what it represents. Having this free medium where you can express your experiences and knowledge and at the same network with the same "believers" is creating the home and cozy feeling. And how could you not want to build something better for the future here when we are surrounded by great/promising projects and people?
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Hive will massive moon in the next month. The weak people are mostly out and only plebs left like us :D
Btw, do you know the legacy of the void trailer? I think this could be a good Hive creation video with some video edit :P Something I look for video edit the last time :D
Ultralisk pop up = exchanges power up user funds :P
I'm really eager to see what the next few months will bring!
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What price do you think BTC will be at the end of the year? I have a feeling it will close lower than 100k.
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These words worth gold, or in modern times should I say BTC.
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If and when Ethereum ever gets it's fees figured out, I'll consider it flipping Bitcoin. Until then, I think the competition will start to eat away at it's utility. None of them are threats yet, but if they keep forcing people to look for alternatives, eventually people will find them. BSC, Cosmos, DOT, even ADA could all eat into it's dominance. And don't forget little HIVE.
It will be very interesting when PulseChain comes online later this year. It's forking the entire Ethereum chain, ERC20's and all. Nothing will have value at the beginning, but when people find out they can transact for pennies, and ERC20's can actually build and utilize it just like the Ethereum chain, for again, pennies, there could be some crazy shit happening all over the markets.
There will also be bridges from ETH to Pulse and quite possibly liquidity pools pairing the ERC20's with the pERC20's. It's a very bold move. Like I said, transacting for pennies rather than hundreds of dollars is going to appeal to a LOT of people and devs both...
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Also, I think I just read ETH had it's first deflationary day. If THAT starts happening more frequently, it's REALLY going to have a hard time flipping BTC. Higher fees, less supply, less utility = lower price. I'm not a bitcoin maximalist. I just don't think an overworked ETH chain can hold off the competition forever. Technology continues to advance and there will just be flat-out better, cheaper, more scalable, and more user-friendly options in the future.
I'll just keep betting on Hive.
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It's true that hive power is worth more than money but sometimes reality sucks and no matter how you love to influence through your power. You need to pull it because money is the real deal in using everyday living. Don't be offended by my own opinion because if I have that power. I mean money to use not hive, I will keep on holding it for sure because I'm confident that hive will be the future in the blockchain.
Oh, by the way, what do you mean it will be on September 24? Do you think it will stop on that week and return to go down?
So by December we will see the long awaited $8 price? I say like a madman yes.
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