What did I say last week?
- It's tax season crunch time.
- We had a bullish full moon and should expect a bearish new moon.
- April is always a sideways or up month.
- Keep your eye on the prize (late May and early/mid June)
It's crazy to see everyone freaking out over price action when this was the expected outcome in the short term. I was even madly bullish on Hive despite the incoming death-cross. Obvious moment to take some gains off the table if you're a day trader. Personally my day-trading days are done.
MA(100) goes under MA(200)
This death-cross obviously railed us pretty bad, but I'm not worried. 80-cents remains a really really strong support and we are only another 17% drop away from there.
Personally I think this is just the precursor to a wicked summer bull run. We should get the confirmation bump we were looking for at the end of the month.
Bitcoin
It is a bit annoying that $45k support got crushed so quickly, but it looks like we might hold here at this weird middle ground at $42500. If true, that's still a much higher low than the lows we've seen in recent history.
This is definitely a nice place to make a higher low and push upward into a summer run, but honestly even $40k is pretty bullish. Anything lower then $40k is going to be a very WTF moment, but by then it will be too late to sell. We find ourselves in another holding pattern for sure.
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
The price of Bitcoin is "guaranteed" to be higher than this price by September... and that's really saying something because September is a "bad month" for crypto.
My cycle chart did me pretty dirty in 2021.
Thanks to Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, and the entire nation of El Salvador. These things happen, and the chop in the crypto water was disturbed. I think 2022 is going to play out much more predictably. We probably won't get a good winter this time around because summer is looking hot hot hot. In fact if we get that summer bull run the end of the year is going to be TERRIBLE most likely. I think we will lose all our gains and fully return to the doubling curve by then (finally). It's about time.
Polycub
I've been meaning to write this for days, but Polycub is looking pretty good price-wise. We've fully bottomed at this 33 cent level multiple times, and I think we've entered and interesting accumulation period where the yields are still high but no one is really selling at this low price.
With less than $400k in the liquidity pools, it's very easy to dump the price, but it is also very easy for bulls to prop it up as well. It's a two way street. In light of these developments, I've stopped selling my airdrop and am just staking it in the xpolycub contract. Despite all the complaining I've done in regards to the project I am quite excited to use that stake to go long when the loan system rolls out. Should be fun.
It's also highly significant that taking the penalty is no longer worth it when farming. That means for 90 days... starting recently... there isn't going to be much (if any) selling of yield for three entire months.
Market cap is the best metric.
At a market cap of $1.5M, Polycub is obviously very low on the totem pole. I think it can go down farther but $1.5M is also super low. I'm not looking to buy at this level, but I'm also not looking to sell. Still looking to wait until the next halving event to see what happens.
Conclusion
Everything is fine. We are a week into the new moon bearish cycle. One week to go before the bearish period and tax crunch time are over. I expect that BTC will easily be trading above $45k by the end of the month. But again, that's not the focus. The real focus is where we are at during the end of May. I'll be holding away unti
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Markets are volatile and if you don't know the cycles or event timelines you might think that they are going crazy. But everything has an explanation and while we continue to accumulate the price comes second in mind. At least until we want to sell any...
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Holding all the way... sometimes, it's all about patience.
That's what crypto needs
Well no matter how obvious or expected the dump was, it's was surprising.
Only time would tell. What are your expectations are the end of the year? Or is it a month at a time market prediction?
Holding and waiting on Polycub is a valid move at this point, I think it could go lower. I'm just DCA on it, but it could easily go either way honestly.
It seems that the Feb is bound and determined to crash the stock market. A few rate increases of 50 basis points or so should do the trick. After this summer’s crypto bull, I’d expect a bloodbath on Wall Street with crypto taking collateral damage.
Seems highly likely
I started changing my strategy with Polycub lately. I still have a specific xpolycub goal in mind, but it is going to take me a bit to get there. I have been just putting my airdrops into that and since the last decrease I am waiting the 90 days for all of my harvests now.
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Feeling relieved somehow... What's the doubling curve for HIVE? Or have you thought about it?
Curious how crypto will hold if we get into a recession.
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There is no doubling curve for Hive.
Hive is still in the early days of figuring its shit out.
It can still 100x and lose 98% value.
I do enjoy sitting back and laughing at peoples reactions to things anymore and realize how dumb it is. If anything it allows me to be a better trader as you can pretty much predict how people are going to react and what they are going to do.
The nice thing about where we are at now is that I mainly know many investments and moves I am making today right now will be 10x or better a few years from now. It's exactly what happened when I got started in Bitcoin at $130 and mined it. HUGE Potential
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I agree, everything is okay, and market goes up and down.
I think most of the big market moves are emotional, and the constant grind up is due to actual adoption.
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They are very emotional which is exactly why we need a high yield DEFI coin that stabilizes itself.
Keep people level-headed.
yes, I'm going to be patient and see how the collateralized loans work out for xPolyCub. I've got it all staked up right now and just waiting. I may regret not staking more but I wanted to be safe just in case to minimize any potential loss. If this goes the way I hope, I'm very optimistic for future launches!
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Anyone not used to irrational price swings by now and reacts accordingly probably isn't ready for the big leagues as far as crypto is concerned
I guess no ones wants to see their tokens go down and probably the fear of a bear market catching them unaware that's a good reason to freak out.
Do you expect this to also have a significant impact on the speed that the xPOLYCUB ratio rises?
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Yeah the speed that it rises will be cut dramatically.
We can already see what the APR is.
Less than 100% APR now and two weeks ago it was over 1000%.
my take on it if you are interested :)
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-bitcoins-rocky-road-to-100k
Have you been day trading much?
What is a good amount in the liquidity pools? Obviously more is better but it does make me wonder what is considered enough liquidity so the price doesn't tank like crazy.
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Check out the last post from @hivebuzz:
Of course the price resistance of the markets is bullish (to a small degree) at the moment, but it can change, and if HIVE reaches 75 cents then I would buy everything I own because I know it will make another high this year, I have a good feeling about it.
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