HBD can absolutely break if it gets too popular.
If the demand to hold our debt outstrips the demand to buy Hive then the debt ratio will go to 30% and our haircut mechanic will be activated. Now that I'm talking about it... I'm not sure what would happen in this scenario. I assume that the haircut would not apply to Hive >> HBD conversions (only the other way). The only way to fix this problem is to increase the haircut ratio or reduce the demand for debt (lower interest rates).
The problem with increasing the ratio is that it increases our exposure to risk and unnecessary leverage. If we can be sure that people aren't going to dump HBD during the bear market then increasing the ratio is fine but that tends to be exactly what people do in a bear market.
So May next year for complacency?
It's not really possible to superimpose the timelines onto crypto.
Euphoria could be November 2025 which is a normal peak.
However it's arguable that this isn't euphoria if it's like a 2021 situation where that second peak was only just a little bit higher than the first one. In 2021 we could argue that we didn't even really get that euphoria phase in 2021 because the run itself was so lack-luster (unless you're an NFT bro or DEFI degen). We sort of went from 'belief' right into 'complacency' back then because we believed we'd continue going much higher even though 2021 ended and the 4-year cycle was over.
Although given that HBD isn't really a simple one-click button to buy on exchanges... it might not be super likely that demand for HBD will get too popular... but I guess we'll have to see. You would think that people in the know would convert crypto profits into HBD savings to specifically wait for the bear market to rinse and repeat... but who knows how many people or to what level that actually happens.
Ah! Thank you.
Okay, so we'll just need to keep our finger on the pulse for the next 20 months to (hopefully) not make terrible decisions.
HBD could explode virally if it starts proliferating in third world nations that need access to the dollar and are also implementing the lightning network. The V4V app piggybacks HBD onto the lightning network and makes it very easy to make LN payments using HBD. Another thing that could explode adoption is it being used as the unit-of-account for game purchases and anything else built on layer 2.