On some of the worst volume I've ever seen, Bitcoin continues to move up against all odds.
We see that the linear line drawn from the first three supply-shocks has now flipped resistance, but it's moving up fast and will converge with $55k resistance in about around three days time. At that point I believe that this combined resistance at $55k will be quite powerful.
New moon is coming.
At this point I expect to be trading between the $50k-$55k range during mid September, with an ultimate bottom-out around the 24th. Don't forget how many executives and institutions want to take Q3 gains and get that promotion.
Corporate rat-race strong.
Never forget that we have invited the sharks to the table. Don't be mad when they strike. We asked for this.
At the same time these supply shocks are real, and I imagine a lot of people (myself included) plan to hold till the end of the year for Christmas and tax purposes and whatever else. Money always flows violently at the end of the year on the average across many sectors. It would be unwise to ignore the cycles, even when they may not apply in some situations. Gambling is a game of numbers and playing the odds. Good decisions are rewarded over time. I feel quite lucky I'll say that much.
Alt-market Guarantee
Even in bearish Bitcoin scenarios, the overall market remains bullish. This is largely due to the Bitcoin supply shock preventing it from crashing in any meaningful way. The fear and FUD are gone and FOMO is ramping up something ferocious.
With Bitcoin trading up and sideways for the last three and a half months, it makes a lot of sense that alts would start doubling down and draining the scarce liquidity that exists in the microcaps. Something like Litecoin has to go x4 just to catch up to where Bitcoin has gotten so far (x2.5 the 2017 ATH). There's a ton of room for growth here, especially considering that ETH has also been officially declared "not a security" and remains a quite unregulated market useful to institutions.
In the real world, trickle-down theory is a worthless concept, but in the decentralized digital world no one entity can capture the entire market share. The Cryptoverse is a living entity in cooperation rather than competition. It's a superior system that's guaranteed to take over given enough time to materialize the infrastructure. All in good time.
HBD
It's also worth mentioning that there are 25 million HBD in circulation at the moment. To those who don't pay attention this this number... this is a very big deal. In 2017 Steem capped out at around 13M I believe and we didn't have near the demand to sustain that number. During the crypto winter we bled over and over as this number was slashed by more than half.
So to now see that number stand at 25M HBD on top of HBD continuously trading at $1.20? Wow, that is a sight to behold. The on-chain analysis for Hive is outstanding. I feel like I'm insider trading when I look at these numbers.
Did you think a silly little pump to $1.20 was a lot? Nah, Hive is crazy. Remember the 10x rule. Only then do we absolutely have to take gains: when the price goes 10x in a relatively short period of time. Funny because a 10x from here still doesn't even reach all time highs, and Bitcoin is already x2.5 above those highs. Things get crazy in a mega-bubble, that's for damn sure.
Conclusion
Yep, more number-go-up fomo.
Even in the bearish case for Bitcoin at this point it seems like $50k is the new supply shock support. Enough money has changed hands here to take all the power away from the bears. The only thing that can rain on this parade is if institutions take Q3 gains, which may or may not offset the balance of supply and demand. At this point this mega-bubble feels stronger than all the rest so I'm hopeful on the greed front.
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I excited for December when you will be writing a new post every hour as things spiral out of control. It should be exciting.
Totally :)
$52,000 incoming!
Bitcoin has been boring for a while now, wait until the market shock when it starts moving again. It's going to be glorious.
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NGU!!!
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Really? Boring? The market has been doing so well and Bitcoin is crossing its ADR every day and you are being bored. You can't go 50K to 100K in 1 day.xd
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The crypto like a cooperation bit is exciting. One project's success affecting another projects success. Really interesting when you consider the variety it brings
I feel it too. Ready for the moon mission. Hive could be different. Depending on how the social will work out the next months. 3Speak claimdrop and splinterlands moves. Also the blocktrades sidechain ( i remember something end of the year) .
With the right timings it could end up in a super fomo. Best case is hive will stay under 1$ as long as possible with big HBD converting. So as much as possible hive can be removed from market :)
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I like when you declare a positive outlook.
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The HIVE has also taken on a new level of resistance in the $0.7 area and as this new altseason has begun the growth seems unstoppable.
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This week and especially tomorrow is going to be quite interesting in the world of BTC vs the Alts
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What I would like to know is if converting hive to hbd is still profitable.
I'm leaning no, as I have to take .55 to convert but to replace that hive I have to pay .67 on the internal market?
That seems a losing proposition, to me.
I was in as long as the spread was the other way, but once the internal market is higher than what the convert feature gives it seems a loss.
Can you clarify that some?
Yeah so the problem here is that as the price of Hive changes these conversions undergo major slippage. If the 3.5 day average is a lot different than the current price it makes less and less sense to risk a conversion when you can just spot-trade the market instantly.
You can be certain that multiple liquidity providers like BlockTrades use bots to figure all this stuff out automatically. Doing it by hand and thinking you're going to pull one over on the bots is a fool's errand.
It seems to me that irrespective of any manipulations by bots, trading my hive to hbd for a price lower than I can get hive for on the internal market is a fool's game.
It wasn't like that, at first.
I was trading hive for hbd that bought more hive on the internal market than I started with.
That isn't the case for at least the last four days.
Yeah honestly we just need better tools for these things.
Still the Wild West out here.
The initial price that you get on the conversion doesn't matter...kind of. The real price is the one that you get 3.5 days later. Since the conversion process uses the smallest median price for the last 3.5 days it looks like it's not profitable but the only thing that it does is limit the amount of HBD that you receive initially.
What really matters is the difference between the internal market and the median price feed at the end of the process.
Having said that I am a greedy bastard and I am waiting for the price feed to catch up to the external market to get a better price.
Thank you for confirming my belief.
As long as the price you pay for your hbd on the internal market is higher than what you paid in the conversion, you have traded your hive for hbd in return for less hive.
Those numbers should be a whoot to see.
So much carnage, so little math.
Now to figure out how to skim off some gains when the time comes!! Haven't doe that type of transaction yet!!! This is such challenging stuff to figure out!! Again here is why cryptoland trumps. I can ask for help and feel pretty confident i can figure it all out. Even if it melts my mind a touch. Lol. Go Numbers Go!! ✅💪🌠
shakeouts have started yesterday.. another bullish sign
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I like this and believe it is more or less true facts.
I have seen that first chart you posted so often and the chance of breaking a resistance like this is very low. We are also seeing a declining volume for half a year which has generally meant a chance for a big correction. Most importantly however is the rejection of the long trend line coming from 2020. I would bet 100 hive that we will see a correction down to 30k. Anyway just my 2 cents and will be happy if proven wrong ;)
It's been an interesting September and I was really thinking it was going to dip yet here we are.
Bitcoin has really bounced around that 50k price point and its been a constant back and forth. Looks like it has just broken.
Awesome analysis
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Even I am having a little funny feeling looking at the markets. But I am okay if BTC goes down when the bubble bursts. Will be buying satoshis in bulk. ✌
Gotta believe in the institutions. ❤
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BTC is going to reach 55k.just that,it will be correcting and be going up.There will be a resistant on 55k, after the correction,it will get to 60k
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