Unsurprisingly: market does the opposite thing I say!

in LeoFinance7 days ago

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In 2019 the market was crashing around this time after the top blew off the volcano. How many more times will I cry wolf before it actually happens and no one believes it? Not even I know.

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So we find ourselves catching another bid to the upside rather than crashing to $28k in the short term. What does it all mean? It means that history doesn't repeat. Sometimes it rhymes.

Let's not forget how all this started:

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Right before this 30% retracement happened I declared that a bear-trap was being set. Of course my conclusion was that bears wouldn't fall for it and we would probably just keep pushing higher. I was obviously wrong.

In fact I am right about volatility but wrong about the direction of said volatility with such amazing precision that all one has to do is bet against me every time and they'll make a ton of money. This has become a long-running joke now on Leofinance and even Twitter at this point. "Just keep making predictions so I can bet against you, friend."

Will do!

So as soon as the market became unstable I freaked out on January 2nd, declaring the end of the bull run. Then again after we doubled dumped on Jan 10th, I freaked out again and declared the bears in charge, immediately after claiming they were being baited.

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Flip flop flip flop flip flop.

The unifying theme of these freakouts is simple scarcity mindset. You think I'd be doing all this if I was a millionaire sitting pretty no matter how low the waves crash? Absolutely not. It's this middle ground of possibly being able to escape debt/wage slavery but just not quite there yet that's incredibly unnerving.

Fake it till you make it.

Easier said than done. You want to live in abundance then you need to live in abundance. Ironically, all billionaires live in scarcity, as whatever they attain clearly isn't enough and they push ever harder for more and more no matter what they have, to the detriment of society itself. Living in abundance is way way harder than it sounds, as it applies to many many other aspects besides just money and power.

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Co-dependence & addiction

Toxic relationships can also be fostered through scarcity. For example, the classic cases of rampant spousal abuse all around the country are a result of scarcity mindset. Extremely toxic co-dependent enablers can link together and forge an unhealthy dynamic for all parties concerned, but this is allowed to continue because the unknown is feared or it is simply too difficult to break away from these mental addictions. Women will far too often support the men who abuse them, to a fault. These classic social dynamics that make little sense from the outside looking in: continue to repeat themselves over and over. Which is obviously both fascinating and terrifying at the same time.

--- End of SJW rant


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Tilting

So where is the market going? Are the bulls in charge or the bears? Who knows... All I do know is that massive volatility is still obviously on the horizon no matter how one slices it.

I'd obviously take some gains around $50k if we made it that high due to obvious unit bias barriers, but really if we intend to gamble on this market we should be looking for the best bets possible.

What is the best bet?

Dollar cost averaging slowly over time at pre-determined price points while waiting for this market to run out of steam. When will it run out of steam? When volatility and volume drop off a cliff. This could take a while, so perhaps I can take this next week off, employ some restraint, and stop constantly flipping out about the market.

AH, who am I kidding?! If I don't make predictions people couldn't bet against me and win win win! I won't let you down, FAM!

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If I don't make predictions people couldn't bet against me and win win win! I won't let you down, FAM!

Yes please :)

Thanks to the timing of you and edicted being in Leofinance chat that day I made some decent profit betting against edicted.

LOL ... cant go wrong :)
In edicted defence he was very close guessing the first poolback from 34k to 28k.

We're going to bounce off $40k down to $28k :D

I'm buying :)

with that prediction, you can make 20% profit buying at 40K

In theory yes :)
But I trade only here and then, not daily ... and its much easier when you just watch from the sidelines ... ones the money are in .... its lot harder

Dollar cost averaging it is with some cash reserves on standby for the "edicted effect" - can't possible lose 😀

It's this middle ground of possibly being able to escape debt/wage slavery but just not quite there yet that's incredibly unnerving.

This is where I am.

There is more volatility coming, as there is a huge amount in the world. As I said a couple minutes ago in a post, We crave security, and the current conditions are anything but.

You keep talking about the setup in 2019 and comparing that to now, 2019 wasn't the start of the post halving bull market... apples and oranges my friend.

It's all I have because in 2017 and 2013 absolutely nothing happened at this time of year. This is pretty uncharted territory.

No it's not. This is pretty much the same price action we had back in late 2016 and early 2017. Bitcoin broke the old all time high around $1k and then continued to push higher with pullbacks along the way.

Check it out:

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Bitcoin was traveling on the doubling curve at that time.
It hit the curve in both January and March. First at $800 then $950
The curve is at $13k right now... so being x3 above it is quite different.
Most people point to the 2013 run, but even that started in April.

The doubling curve isn't a hard and fast rule, been proven so several times. I prefer to stick to the patterns created in previous bull market cycles than the doubling curve you are going with.

Ha! Right at being wrong...its becoming a trend...actually based on predictions, at this point, so are a lot of people.

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We are on the uptrend once again and I am expecting this time a new ATH for Ethereum. It seems that it was a short dip and the market reversed as you would blink. Crazy times, I couldn't predict this even if you beat me. Thus, I am just HODLing and maybe sell my EOS tokens as I don't enjoy too much.

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Even after declaring this was an OBVIOUSLY epic bear-trap moments before it happened... I was still doubting it in real-time. Classic weak-hand moment.

Trade the opposite of what your emotions are screaming.

Good points however there has been a market shift with the implementation of Stable coins and interest which will create much faster, harder and huger bull runs.

Looking at data on the Web, massive gains have been sold off and placed into DAI. Coinbase has a 5day waiting period to pay out Dai earnings.

You can see on their data sets that Dai blew out, there are a few million dollar accounts sitting in Dai generating ALOT of income.

Maker experienced the bull run however Compound did not. It virtually was untouched. Perhaps an unknown ETH project which PAYS out ETH where Dai pays out Dai.

With current ETH prices it is better to be sitting holding an account generating you ETH.

Dai asset builds up. I'm tipping once those dividend payments are made there will be another bullrun.

Boosting now your ability to pay more and pumping up the ETH you have earned of Compound.

Compound is on a bullrun. Damn coinbase won't open up my wallet to earn off my Compound. I'm missing out massively on these early days.

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You want to live in abundance then you need to live in abundance. Ironically, all billionaires live in scarcity, as whatever they attain clearly isn't enough and they push ever harder for more and more no matter what they have, to the detriment of society itself. Living in abundance is way way harder than it sounds, as it applies to many many other aspects besides just money and power.

Yo edicted, that's why I like your flip-floppery - where you're always right and always wrong at the same time......eh!!??

:D

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I was just thinking this same thing the other day when I read your post earlier in the day and then suddenly by the end of the day things were starting to move back up towards 40k. Crazy stuff. I guess I have to wait a little longer to start my dollar cost average buying.

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