A market is a perfect machine perfectly designed to punish the greediest participants.
Don't think about external factors. Don't you think that BTC at 10K$ is a wet dream for a bear (especially after a -70%)?. IMHO not, and lots of coins are already showing signs of bottoming out.
As a trader, I have to play the 'logical' setup, not the apocalypse setup which Perma bears wish. Eventually, I'll be right (everyone is right at some point).
Also think that for price to drop someone has to sell it first, and as btc's are being sold, it's increasingly difficult to drop it further. I don't see 2018-2019 buyers selling now, they had it's chance.
People selling now are retail massively underwater.
what I can't wrap my head around is a bear cycle that bottoms out in the first months and then it doesn't go further down for years. I get your reasoning but it still doesn't add up in my tiny brain
In bear markets we don't necessarily go down all the time, we can perfectly be ranging from ages and that's expected.
For example, in 2018 it took 10 months to reach the bottom, from that point we spent another year and a half just ranging without a clear direction.
I don't mind to range in that sense. Best time to accumulate.
That's what I mean, it hasn't been 10 months in our case
I mean you are right if fiat currency devalues more the equivalent to a floor price becomes higher.
Water level rise, everything is lifting :D