SEED Holdings Report #25 - Loan juggling, Polycub games & more!

in LeoFinance7 months ago (edited)

Time for an update! This week the Polycub launch has eclipsed all the other things around the Hive ecosystem developments and obviously, It wouldn't be the same for me without playing the launch (yes, with seed funding).

The situation with Russia/Ukraine is keeping the crypto markets in an awkward spot. But over the long term I believe it doesn't matter. Trends are trends and I see BTC and ETH far ahead from the 'unstoppable' point.

A little recap of what I'll be talking about today:

  • DAO Maker keeping up in terms of price. Presales paused temporarily. Staking rewards coming in & big unlock of 4000$ coming in ~10 days.
  • Took a loan denominated in ORN with seed funds to play the polycub launch, ORN pumped the day after, got scared, decided to return the loan, and bought it up with personal funds. Wp empo. U suck.
  • Polycub overview & opinion (Spoiler, I'm not bullish).
  • New SEED icon! Do you like it? Smash the like! credits to @queengaga for the dope work.

SEEDy.png

And this is how we're standing at the time of writing:

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DAO Maker Status

We haven't participated in a single presale in the last 15 days. They're all on hold basically. I kinda understand it though. Launching a Defi/NFT/Gaming product at current market conditions can be a bit like shooting yourself on the toe. Understandable that everyone wants a 'number go up' event at launch.

No biggie, we have a decent unlock of 4K$ in less than 10 days (one that was postponed 1 month) and our DAO keeps giving staking rewards while seems that's fairly stable in price lately. Accumulation or further distribution before another leg down? We'll see.

Polycub Games

Ahh jeez... past week I had one of those ''F*CK ME DAMN'' moments. You know the feeling when you sell and the price insta pumps +40% the next day? Yeah, one of those. That's how things went:

  • Seeing that we barely had 2500$ available in BUSD, decided to take a little loan of 5000$ denominated in ORN at around 3,2$ (1550 ORN approx.) The loan was taken from one of the multiple portfolios which I'm privately managing, being this one from my sister. Thought, ''meh, I can farm the first week of polycub and return the ORN easily after, if this sh*t doesn't break up, obviously''.

What happens then?
Yeah, exactly.

  • The price breaks up and pumps +40% the day after.

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  • Considered several options, clearly didn't want to 'allow' the debt to stay here and assume the risk of ORN starting to move up (it was my invalidation point). But also didn't want to pull out funds and private myself to play the Polycub launch with seed funds.

  • Finally decided to 'buy out the loan' and I returned the ORN from my own funds (6000$ at the time). In exchange, I took the only liquid asset available from seed-treasury (matching amounts): the HBD-SEED position. The exact amount of SEED & HBD remains stacked in the diesel pool, but now I'm the owner of that liquidity.

TL;DR

A loan taken in the worst time possible forced me to purchase the seed-treasury liquidity in order to be able to keep farming on safe terms.

Sum of initial investment into Polycub: 8250$

Assuming that I started out with 8250$ (3250$ bridged from BSC and 5000$ 'loaned');

  • I started farming into the pLEO-MATIC pool & selling all the rewards for btc/eth/stables (& pooling again).

  • I changed my plans and decided to sell all the LEO on 8 March (avg price of 0,22-0,25$), IMHO the LEO-MATIC pool doesn't have a fair multiplier Vs btc/eth/stables pools (Sorry for the dump!), Switched everything into BTC/ETH stables.

  • Until the day I keep on selling most of my acquired polycub. I'm still dubious about the point where I should start keeping half (to keep pooling it with WETH and/or USDC).

Current balances on Polycub: 13500$

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I'm not keeping a very close record about the 'pure profits' since I'm managing multiple wallets and all that stuff, but I know that regarding SEED we're talking about +4000$ of pure profit which keeps compounding with the initial investment.

PolyCub Overview & Opinion

I have kept my mouth closed all this time (regarding my polycub operations) for a reason, since I didn't want others to compete with me in the early days of farming (at a point, I controlled 10-20% of the pLEO-MATIC pool). My intention & plan for polycub has always been to capitalize on the early days and we'll see after.

I've not kept a single Polycub since I 100% knew that 4$ was vastly overpriced. It's still to be seen how PoL & bonding performs, but I think we'll easily see polycub under 0,5$ (0,2-0,5$ is my target before ever CONSIDER buying) once emissions keep going down and people get bored (I believe people are overestimating the capacity of Polycub PoL to buyback & burn polycub). All of this, of course, nfa.

But yes, I guess I'm a Polycub Bear (I'm selling everything and I'll keep doing so).

Quick maths

Let's assume a TVL of 10M$ in kingdoms (x2 actual figures).
Let's also assume that the harvesting fee of 10% remains as it is and a farm APR of 5% in average.

That means that for 10M, the APR after 1 year is 500K$ out of this (assuming everything ramins static), polycub keeps the 10% or 50K$.

I don't know if this number is really really low (I assume it is), but let's multiply it by a factor of 5 and assume we're talking about 250K$ after 1 year (I'm still assuming 10M$ in TVL, remember).

How much time do we need for the PoL to grow into a considerable sum to make a noticeable dent into the whole polycub supply. Even at 1$ and 7M supply we're talking about years...

Dunno. Maybe I have misunderstood something? I would be delighted if someone could show me where I am wrong.

Current SEED Stats:

Circulating Supply: 100.000 tokens (full released)
@seed-treasury owned: 0 (transfered to @empoderat for polycub funding).

AUM Value (All assets): 180.000$

SEED TOTAL Value: 170000/100000 = 1,8$ /SEED

180/8 = 22,5% MoM profit

We're slowly stabilizing around that point, comfy.

seedaumbars.png

100% of blogging rewards paid to @seed-treasury.
Remember you can follow the portfolio in real-time here:

https://cointracking.info/portfolio/seedtreasury

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Owww wow, you are in the profit on this farm play! Super!
Though wondering how it looks currently, Poly dumped a lot but is kinda trying to move up again a little. Anyways, just looked at the chart (https://dexscreener.com/polygon/0x5aefd5c04ed6dbd856a5aeb691efcc80c0ab7472), nothing else. Don't know the farm, I didn't read about it and all. Market Cap is like 3M$? That's a lot for a farm, or at least for a smaller farm. Or am I missing something?
I had quite a bit of bad plays last year, so I stopped playing farms completely. Not my thing. Was nice to learn, but seen it, done it, back to investing :)

Cool SEED is making some money with this farm :)

I still like my TenseT! Not a farm, but an ETF. Have some money in it which gives me free airdrops of all sorts of tokens. Not sure about the APR, but must be a few 10%/year. And very much like TenseT launchpad in which I locked tokens. They just launched a few projects/year, but they all do very well. Soon they gonna announce their next project. Last time it was like 3000 or 3500 TenseT tokens to get the subscription giving the right to participate in a project launch. They will open subscriptions again before the next launch. Requires about 10k$ with today's value of the token. It didn't help TenseT is listed as the top launchpad at coingecko, or one of the other major crypto sites. Well, it does the token value good, but not so good for new entrants. Anyways, something to consider for SEED.

Logo: well, go for it.

Or am I missing something?

I'm farming in the btc/eth/usd pools and the reward token is polycub, that's all :)

The money being made comes from selling the polycubs harvested and sold. As I told in the post I'm not considering to hold them (at least yet) since I also consider polycub vastly overvalued in terms of marketcap. But... as long as the price remains high, better for me, since I'm getting more APR in the meanwhile.

just looked at TenseT, they incubated metahero? that was great!

PolyCub: standard BSC farm (ah well, these days also on other chains like avalanche, fantom and whatnot). Big APRs, none native pools with native rewards and many sell them. Anyways, as mentioned, no game for me at all after playing too many of these farms with mostly breakeven, sometimes bigger losses and rarely gains.

I truly don't understand why so many farms are created. In the end, a farm has a purpose, but can only be for those using a service and owning its token and likes to park it somewhere for a bit of 'interest'. Any farm that is created just for the farm, is doomed :) But I'm sure you know that and know that you need to be in the non-native pools and dump the reward tokens as quickly as you can. In the meantime hoping for others to hold those natives, or even buy them so the dump makes more profits. Its basically a game for the knowledgable peeps to 'steal' money from the 'stupid' peeps 🙃

TenseT indeed launched Metahero. They also launched Everdome. Metahero scans will go into the Everdome metaverse. The downside is at the moment that many 'investors' in Metahero/Everdome tokens don't see the full picture and are only complaining in the community channels of respective projects. Part of the reason why these tokens are not doing that great lately. That said, Everdome fully diluted is still at around 5 Billion $. Also, roadmap of Metahero seems to be pushed back. I understand why, since what they try to create costs so much money, they need to get it right to make sure they will not start a scanner business that stays in the red figures (most scanner businesses in the last decade and more are all loss-making, partially because they dont have enough use cases or the number of scans per use case is too limited, whilst the cost for a scan is too high... catch 22 situations which MetaHero is trying to break through).

Thank you very much for nominating me, it's a pleasure @empoderat. You can always count on me.
Seed is a gold mine, I love it. It's amazing to see the progress and the journey of SEED, it's only 3/4 of a year. Although DAO Maker is in a quiet state, we will soon have more activity again. ;)

22% profit average is still good.
Polycub price is dependent on it's future utility , not on it's emission rate.

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And what is their future utility rather than the 'number go up' mechanics of xpoly?

Once emissions get halved every month and reduced to something meaningless, then what?

Very interesting update on many front. I like that you share your honest opinion without any filter.

Take care and stay safe out there!

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Thx lemon, same 4 you :)

I have to agree that PolyCUB won't stay that high for a while and that entering the other farms is a better choice. Are the multipliers on the ETH/BTC LP better than the pLEO ones? Or are you more worried about the price of things going down?

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Considering risk/reward ratio, yes. A x0,75 multiplier in btc/eth7stables is much better than a x1 multiplier in matic/pleo. a +25% in additional rewards isn't enouggh IMO.

Yeah we don’t know what to take on the polycub action. At this point it may be a good time to get into the action now that everyone got burned from the big drop. But at the moment all of our DEFI is pretty mischievous locked into time locked LP in the Cosmos space. The other is in Splinterlands at this point.

Personally I am long on PolyCUB, to be understood that I have not bought anything but I am reinvesting all my PolyCUB in xPolyCUB and they will remain there for the next months (or years?). It does not matter.

I decided to invest in CUB instead because it is much more advantageous economically and in the future it will offer other airdrops, pending the IDOs.

Taking into account a 60% APR in CUB kingdom, you're still a -40% down since currently yearly inflation for CUB is +100%, so keep that in mind. Polycub airdrop hasn't been a great incentive for CUB so far (price 100% retraced the announcement hype).

You have been making some big moves which is good for all of us and thank you yet again. patience will pay off at some point and when things settle down the money maker (DAO) will be back printing profits yet again.

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Hope so! thx mr coffee :)

I didn't imagine you looked like a green frog. Still more handsome than me though :)))

Nooo, that's him while trading. His real photo is at the bottom of the post, where he's doing dishes :)

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Doh! What a price candle! been there tho. happens sometimes..

I have kept my mouth closed all this time (regarding my polycub operations) for a reason, since I didn't want others to compete with me in the early days of farming.

Smart move (the smart ones do this).

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Implying that I'm smart? yeah sure.

Btw, how is the situation in Romania with the Ukraine/Russia drama?

We're not in immediate danger just yet, but we're very close. Depends on this lunatic, how big of a chaos he wants to create and if he wants to be lectured by NATO.

We're hosting a lot of refugees for now.

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I forgot to tell you, I like the new SEED icon, it looks great. And also, don't bash yourself for the ORN situation. It hurts, I know but it happens.

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Current price of ORN doesn't reflect all what is being built IMO. However, things will fall into place eventually. Thanks!

Do you earn yield with SEED by holding or staking ?

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Holding SEED doesn't give any yield solo (if it's sitting in your wallet).

However, you can pair it with HBD into a dedicated diesel pool and get easily a +10% APR.

seedapr.png

https://beeswap.dcity.io/swap?add_liquidity&pool=SWAP.HBD:SEED

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After BAYC Token I'm more bearish than ever :D

It's cute! ;)