There’s been ongoing concern about Apple’s position in China. Is that the main takeaway for you?
Speaker: For me, the key takeaway is about Apple's future growth. I'm optimistic that Apple’s intelligence features will drive revenue growth, and I have high expectations for the next couple of years. However, the guidance dampened the hope for a 20% boost that some were expecting in the December quarter. The guidance was in the low single digits, while Wall Street was aiming for around 7%. So, we’re probably looking at growth between 5-6%, similar to the September quarter. This confirms that growth acceleration will take a few more quarters to materialize.
As for China, I had anticipated growth there, but it was minimal—around 0.5%—despite easy comps that should have shown 5-6%. This suggests there may be underlying challenges in the Chinese market.
Jeanne: Fair question—where will future growth come from? Talking about technology, we can look at Apple’s intelligence features. Chinese consumers might buy the iPhone 16 expecting that Apple will eventually make the platform available in China, despite current regulatory restrictions. How are you modeling that?
Speaker: Some users are already using these features, which I’d describe as “nice-to-have” rather than essential. They help consolidate messages and notifications, which is convenient. For now, this will expand only to additional English-speaking regions like the UK, Canada, and Australia. Europe’s rollout timing remains uncertain, and for China, Apple might need a partnership with Baidu. To turn this into a super cycle, some geopolitical elements need to align. I believe Apple has the influence to make that happen.
Although the features are currently “nice-to-have,” I believe they’ll become essential as more functionality and developer support are integrated, likely starting in the first quarter of next year. Right now, the “fruit” is seen in the services segment, though regulatory issues could impact that. For example, the App Store faces potential regulatory pressure.
The risk, or "Black Swan" event, would be if growth in services—currently at around 12-13%—is disrupted by regulation. This concern was raised during Apple’s and Google’s recent calls. Services are doing well because their user base continues to grow, setting record highs. There’s a small chance—around 10-15%—of a disruption between Apple and Google over their search placement deal on Safari, which contributes significantly to Apple’s income. That’s another key area I’m keeping an eye on.
There’s been ongoing concern about Apple’s position in China. Is that the main takeaway for you?
Speaker: For me, the key takeaway is about Apple's future growth. I'm optimistic that Apple’s intelligence features will drive revenue growth, and I have high expectations for the next couple of years. However, the guidance dampened the hope for a 20% boost that some were expecting in the December quarter. The guidance was in the low single digits, while Wall Street was aiming for around 7%. So, we’re probably looking at growth between 5-6%, similar to the September quarter. This confirms that growth acceleration will take a few more quarters to materialize.
As for China, I had anticipated growth there, but it was minimal—around 0.5%—despite easy comps that should have shown 5-6%. This suggests there may be underlying challenges in the Chinese market.
Jeanne: Fair question—where will future growth come from? Talking about technology, we can look at Apple’s intelligence features. Chinese consumers might buy the iPhone 16 expecting that Apple will eventually make the platform available in China, despite current regulatory restrictions. How are you modeling that?
Speaker: Some users are already using these features, which I’d describe as “nice-to-have” rather than essential. They help consolidate messages and notifications, which is convenient. For now, this will expand only to additional English-speaking regions like the UK, Canada, and Australia. Europe’s rollout timing remains uncertain, and for China, Apple might need a partnership with Baidu. To turn this into a super cycle, some geopolitical elements need to align. I believe Apple has the influence to make that happen.
Although the features are currently “nice-to-have,” I believe they’ll become essential as more functionality and developer support are integrated, likely starting in the first quarter of next year. Right now, the “fruit” is seen in the services segment, though regulatory issues could impact that. For example, the App Store faces potential regulatory pressure.
The risk, or "Black Swan" event, would be if growth in services—currently at around 12-13%—is disrupted by regulation. This concern was raised during Apple’s and Google’s recent calls. Services are doing well because their user base continues to grow, setting record highs. There’s a small chance—around 10-15%—of a disruption between Apple and Google over their search placement deal on Safari, which contributes significantly to Apple’s income. That’s another key area I’m keeping an eye on.