Is 50c for HIVE a cause for celebration? Some perspective on where it can go next

fredrikaa (74)in LeoFinance • 5 years ago (edited)

It's been pleasant to see HIVE's fast gains in recent days. Much needed after what's felt like three quarters of slumber during an otherwise booming crypto market. Today, the Hive rocket continues taking the price above 55c and 1000 Sats.

But is it a time to celebrate? Or when should we feel satisfied? Let's have a look.

^{HIVE is currently trading at 55c according to Coingecko. But is that a "high" price? HIVE price at Coingecko}

Top 100

Being in the top 100 by market cap is a big deal when it comes to visibility. New people coming into crypto who are looking to get familiar with new coins that can have the potential to go up in price will tend to look "further down" the list on coinmarketcap etc.

There used to be a time when being in the top 100 was taken for granted and a low-hanging fruit. In fact, when I first joined back in June 2017, it was expected to sit around the top 20. When HIVE then dropped out of the top 100, it was not only sad, it was embarrassing.

So what price would HIVE need to have in order to get back in the top 100?

Current bottom of the coingecko top 100 crypto currencies march 2021.png

^{The top 100th coin by market cap is currently cUSDT with a market cap of $673,988,227 according to Coingecko as of March 23 2021}

In other words. HIVE would need a market cap of approximately $675m to be back in the top 100. Or closer to $750m to be comfortably within it.

With a current market cap of about $200m. It means the price would have to be 0,55 / 200 * 675 = $1,85 in order for HIVE to be in the top 100.

Needless to say, that's a significantly higher price, and one that for quite a while may have seemed optimistic. Yet imo, it's the bare minimum we should demand from ourselves not to be feeling embarrassed.

Where did we use to be?

If you've joined in the last 2 years, it may sound surreal to think that STEEM was once a top 3 currency only behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. And while that peak may have been an extreme event, it was nevertheless an expectation that with its unique growth strategy through utilizing the network effect of a social media platform to reach new people, and serving as an easier entry to crypto than most, that it would be in the top 10 or at least 20.

When I first joined this chain, I made an effort to buy 325 Euro worth of STEEM to power up before my introduction post in order to showcase some commitment and long term interest in the chain. At the time, STEEM was trading for 45,000 Sats, and I was happy to have bought just before it went up to 95,000 Sats and sat just north of $2. Bitcoin was trading for $2200-2300 at the time.

When STEEM then later went down to 30,000 Sats, I considered it a great "cheap accumulation zone" to pick up more, and started buying a few thousand coins per month at a price just above $1 or with my Bitcoins. When the Sats value then briefly dipped below 10,000 as Bitcoin soared to $20,000 for the first time, it felt like a surreal moment that would likely never happen again. But I kept the cool and was happy to be able to take some profits at 50,000 Sats and $6-8 early in 2018 (although I obviously should have sold much more than ~15% of my holdings).

Steem close to its ath january 7 2018.png

^{A snapshot of Coinmarketcap on 7. January 2018. STEEM was still considered to be at a "poor" rank of 36. But see how close we were to BNB?}

Still a long way to go

Needless to say, those past values of 30k sats, or even 10k sats, now seem like wishful thinking. For HIVE to be back where I considered it "cheap", while Bitcoin stays where it is, price would be about $16. And if it were to go back to the satoshi value of the summer in 2017 when I first got involved then it would be closer to $50.

I don't think those values are far-fetched or too optimistic at all. But it will require us to think much bigger than we currently do. Stop wasting time "inwards" on petty issues like reward disagreements, trying to please every community member as if we're already a sizable userbase, and instead set a bold vision for how Communities can be Hive's NFTs, or how enterprises can use communities and second-layer solutions to crowdsource community building and thus brand and product marketing the way Tesla has succeed with.

We can get there. But we need to remind ourselves of where the targets are, not grow satisfied with maintaining and min-maxing what's still a very, very, very small userbase and platform. And instead double down on an attractive vision.

Thankfully, we might just be getting the momentum to do so.