Very recently, Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream made yet another interesting Bitcoin prediction. This time around, Back is predicting that Bitcoin will reach at least a market cap of $1 trillion by 2022.
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For Back's prediction to come true, then Bitcoin will have to move up roughly by 500% from its current market cap of $198.5m according to data obtained from Coingecko.com. Since price is the chief determinant of market capitalization, another way to look at this issue is to weigh the chances of Bitcoin reaching $50k by 2022 from its present price of approximately $10,800. So what are the chances?
The chances of Bitcoin reaching $50k on or before 2022 is more or less like the chances of saying the that lead will sink in water or that winter will be cold. Little wonder why Back himself admitted, frankly I should say, that he was being conservative.
Historically, Bitcoin is known to make parabolic upwards movement within 12 to 18 months of its halving event. Given that the last Bitcoin halving occurred in May this year, it is almost certain that Bitcoin will hit $50k far before the end of 2022. It might even be more appropriate to expect Back's prediction come true somewhere around 2021.
Also, considering that Bitcoin has recently set a new record of the longest period it has held above the $10k range, it is almost certain, except for some black swan event, that Bitcoin might never again fall below its halving price of $8,800.
Furthermore, given that a weaker dollar has always overseen a soaring Bitcoin price, we can without exaggeration expect Bitcoin to continue to rise in the coming days. Thanks to Covid-19 relief funds that came from massive dollar printing to the tune of trillions. Sooner or later, Bitcoin will see an increase that will indisputably make a case for a full blown bull market.
In conclusion, Back's prediction is quite conservative and should easily come true as long as a black swine event does not ruin the fine chances in the way of Bitcoin.
We can expect to see BTC reach 50K relatively soon, I believe. It's been 3 years since the previous bull run sent the price to almost 20K. Since then, the price has spent 33 months consolidating. Given BTC history or occasional bull runs, as well as the currently fragile state of most of the economies around the world, we can look for fiat currencies to drop in price, while BTC rises, along with gold, silver, and other cryptocurrencies.
It is always very interesting to read your thoughts on BTC, given that you've been following BTC for several years now. I agree with what you've said above. On our own part, as you'd always say, let's hope for the best.
PS: I hope that your blog comes back running again. Cheers!