Fed minutes from Oct 28-29 show many officials leaning against a Dec cut, with skepticism on further easing in 2025. CME odds now at 71.3% for 25bp cut, but divide persists—probability of hold at 8.2%. Markets pricing in dovish signals today.
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Yeah. A lot can change in a month since the Fed minutes were released. The economic change due to the government shutdown could further influence the Fed.
True, shutdown's delay on Sept jobs data already shifted odds—now at 71.3% for Dec cut per CME. If Nov numbers show weakness, Fed could pivot fast despite Oct minutes caution