We have already seen five rate hikes with a sixth/seventh on the way this year. I think the majority of the damage has been done to the equities markets. However the full extent of the damage has yet to be seen for the real estate markets.
With interest rates being so insanely high for fixed rate mortgages you have people that are simply unable to qualify for new homes. The income requirements have shot through the roof with the rates and so have the down payments. People are already underwater on recently purchased mortgages and properties, as new home builders are getting cancellations.
Lumber, fuel and other raw material prices have been down. Even gold took a hit recently as people began to tap into their savings and "stores of value". This is why Bitcoin has gotten squeezed so hard lately too- it is digital gold of course and its value is being tapped just like a battery.
TLDR:
Housing will keep crashing, feds will be forced to reverse course and lower rates or stop raising interest rates once they see this effect.
Inflation is already somewhat under control, relative to the high prices that will remain sustained. It will take a full year to get these numbers on paper for YoY readings so in the mean time politicians will be picking apart the data for any signs of divergence.
Inflation is not under control, I was with u 💯 until they last part. Rates are still negative at 4% given CPI is higher. It’s a totally fake market for over a decade plus and the pain is not avoidable. I agree with u on much but no inflation isn’t under control. Energy prices this winter will be insane and even with a lower CPI of that’s the case it won’t be stable for years.
Inflation is a side effect of printing money, correct? Since they have stopped printing so much, as quickly, the rate at which the supply dilution is happening is slowing. This is evident in the M2SL charts (M2 Money Supply) which have shown a tapering and plateau. No more stimulus bills have been passed recently, they stopped the assistance programs and supplemental checks.
It may not seem like it considering most prices are still higher, and they will remain high. Inflation is a rate at which things are moving up, remember, it is not the prices that we are paying. Also with oil barrel prices plummeting to below $80 a barrel from where it peaked at $129 will have a dramatic effect on the bottom line for pricing moving forward since transportation is one of the largest costs for consumer goods.