using Ai.
This bull cycle is completely different from the last one I witnessed in 2021, everything about that market was much more better and fun than this time.
Most of the time we take hint about market from the previous cycle and this cycle resemble with 2020-2021 yet during the time of halving everyone were panicked and scared to enter in market even when Altcoins went down 50% just before halving.
It seems we're in the early days of cycle before things become more interesting but well let's check what's different this time.
The Last Bull Run: When FOMO was at it's Peak
Everyone was excited about Bitcoin halving like it was everyone on the internet from facebook to reddit and twitter.
Halving was a discussion and people were creating threads farming engagement telling people how Bitcoin is going to moon towards $500k after the halving.
Image by dlsd cgl from Pixabay
I remember the real move (pump) started when tesla announced they bought some billions worth of Bitcoin and bitcoin printed about $5k candle within minutes.
Elon musk alone brought so much money into crypto market not with just Tesla announcement but also pumping dogecoin with his tweets every other day.
That was when Mr beast like people under Elon tweets were commenting "I'm going to ape into dogecoin if this and that" this whole thing was like peak fomo yet there was not a single person scared like people are scared nowadays.
Pandemic: everyone wanted to make money
The retails in crypto were at it's peak like those were some insane numbers of retail investors invested in the crypto market all because of the pandemic.
In my opinion everyone was desperate enough to just be involved in some ponzi or crypto that makes them money sitting at home.
Bitcoin was around $9000 in last halving and than it jumped to $69k all that without BlackRock or any ETFs, mostly driven by retails and these exchanges.
Tether printing, Less regulations and more to Fuel the market with ease
Back then, tether aka USDT printing was at it's finest like it is nowadays but that time regulations were soft nothing like it is today.
Exchanges like Binance was printing billions of stablecoins supply out of thin air which helped pumped the market.
Venture capital (VC'S) had ton of fresh money to invest in new paradigm of that time like metaverse, NFTs and gamefi based projects.
Present Bull Cycle: it's nothing close to last one
We now have Bitcoin ETFs approved and so BlackRock is bidding everyday but also grayscale is selling and not running out of bitcoins (still have 50%) and there's not much of media coverage seen like it was in past.
Image by Malinaphotocz from Pixabay
No celebrities shilling their coins or NFTs, no exchange printing billions out of thin air like before, thousands of coins with no utility and purpose.
There's literally thousands of protocols just absorbing the liquidity and it's not being moved. This ETF catalyst can't be bigger than the "retail investors" catalyst which is nowhere to be seen.
Maybe that last cycle was just once in a lifetime because of the pandemic and now people are busy with their life and only those who are interested in the market is bunch of us people stuck since then.
This crypto cycle Lacks Hype
Surely the stocks did much better in performance as well as the hype they had throughout the year Nvidia, Microsoft and all other tech companies to other major stocks were being discussed on internet.
Bitcoin was somehow second choice of people, the hype wasn't even close to stocks.
Only way they can bring similar 2021 hype is doing something like two or three countries making official they're buying Bitcoin.
Recently honk Kong approved Bitcoin and ether spot ETFs is a good sign of a wave of ETFs coming soon from other part of the world.
Wrapping Up...
The best anyone can think of doing now after today's halving is stay involved with the market as much as possible and find the oppurtunites like airdrops and more.
Next couple of months will be insanely bullish if not for the Altcoins as much as last cycle, still bitcoin will be more bullish than the last cycle.
Also It would be much better to stay away from futures (leverage) and save the capital from Liquidation before the next rally.
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Interesting thoughts. I think there's an element of maturity to crypto now compared to a few years ago. In a way, it seems to me that many market movers have been flushed out and replaced by a new and fewer group of market movers. But this is just a sentiment :)
yea , could be this.. market is changed and well we can only survive by adapting it.
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Me looking for the hype..
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Your blog exceeds my expectations. Although, I was thinking why didn't you talked about Palestine, Ukraine, Iran etc. War effect market also.
Glad to hear, I did talked about issues like this before but mostly about the impact it is causing..